The Federal Reserve’s newly released minutes from the October 28–29 meeting have thrown fresh uncertainty into the December policy outlook, sharpening market volatility across equities, bonds, and Bitcoin.
While the minutes reflect economic data only available at the time of the meeting, the language shift inside the document has become the latest flashpoint for analysts dissecting the Fed’s next move.
Fed Minutes Expose a Narrow Majority Against a December Rate Cut
The Fed described “many” officials as seeing a December rate cut as “likely not appropriate,” while “several” said a cut “could well be appropriate.”
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In Fed-watcher parlance, the hierarchy matters. “some” > “several”, and “many” outweighs both. This indicates that a narrow majority opposed cutting rates in December at the time of the meeting.
The minutes also indicated emerging stress points in money markets:
- Repo volatility,
- Declining ON RRP usage, and
- Reserves drifting toward scarcity.
This combination historically preceded the end of quantitative tightening (QT). Sentiment, therefore, is that the Fed may be closer than expected to ending balance-sheet runoff.
Ahead of this release, markets had already de-risked, with the Bitcoin price slipping below $89,000 to a 7-month low. The sentiment spread across crypto stocks and TradFi indices.
Macro traders say the real story is the razor-thin nature of the Fed divide. The minutes indicate no firm consensus, suggesting December is shaping up to be one of the tightest policy calls since the Fed began its inflation fight.
Some officials emphasized still-elevated inflation risks; others pointed to cooling labor conditions and fading demand. With both sides arming themselves with recent post-meeting data, including softer CPI, stable jobless claims, and cooling retail activity, December could swing on the next two data prints.
For now, the market is recalibrating to a scenario where liquidity is tightening, policy uncertainty is rising, and Bitcoin sits in a structurally vulnerable zone until buyers regain initiative.
If the Fed chooses to hold in December, markets may need to brace for a longer-than-expected plateau and more volatility ahead.