The Galaxy head of firmwide research says that Bitcoin (BTC) could face near-term turbulence but still has a path to $250,000 over the next few years.
In a new post to X, blockchain researcher Alex Thorn says that growing uncertainty and shifting investor behavior points to volatile price expectations through 2026 for BTC.
“BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end 2026. These wide ranges reflect uncertainty about the near term. At the time of writing, broader crypto is already deep in a bear market, and bitcoin has failed to firmly re-establish its bullish momentum. Until BTC firmly re-establishes itself above $100-$105k, we feel risk remains to the downside in the near term. Other factors in the broader financial markets also create uncertainty, such as the rate of AI capex deployment, monetary policy conditions, and the U.S. midterm elections in November.
Over the course of the year, we have seen a structural decrease in the level of longer term BTC volatility – some of this move can be the introduction of larger overwriting/BTC yield generation programs. What is notable is that the BTC vol smile now prices puts in vol terms as more expensive than calls, which was not the case 6 months ago. This is to say, we are moving from a skew normally seen in developing, growth-y markets to markets seen in more traditional macro assets.”
According to the Galaxy Digital executive researcher, all signs indicate that BTC will continue to grow and mature as a viable asset for investors.
“This maturation will likely continue, and whether or not bitcoin bleeds lower towards the 200-week moving average, the asset class’s maturation and institutional adoption are only increasing. 2026 could be a boring year for Bitcoin, and whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook (over longer time periods) is only growing stronger. Increasing institutional access is combining with relaxing monetary policy and a market in desperate search for non-dollar hedge assets. It’s very possible that bitcoin follows gold to become widely adopted as a monetary debasement hedge within the next two years.”
BTC is worth $88,096 at time of writing.
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