Key Takeaways
Why is Gold ahead in 2025?
Gold climbed 45% to $3,895 as inflation and instability drove central banks and pension funds toward safe-haven exposure.
What signals support Bitcoin’s rebound?
BTC is 4% below ATH, historically rallied 22–46% in October–November, and could surpass Gold if cycles repeat.
The crypto market has exploded in recent years, with Bitcoin becoming everyone’s favorite. Inasmuch, Bitcoin [BTC] grew from $4k in 2020 to $118k as of this writing, marking a 2850% gain in five years.
During this period, Bitcoin outperformed assets like Gold. But in the past year, Gold has taken the spotlight.
Gold hits new highs
Gold hit a record high of $3895 per ounce, extending its year-long rally before slightly retracing to $3875 as of this writing.
In fact, over the past nine months, Gold surged from a low of $2,621, increasing approximately 45%, while Bitcoin is up 27%.
Is Bitcoin at risk?
Why is Gold soaring in 2025?
Checkonchain data showed Gold outperforming BTC amid global uncertainty.
Since Donald Trump’s reelection, trade wars and tariffs have fueled inflation across major economies. Central banks and pension funds increased Gold holdings.
Gold has historically outperformed fiat. All major currencies have lost value against Gold since 2022, with 2024 marking a sharper divergence.
Source: Checkonchain
Is Gold safer than Bitcoin amid a U.S. shutdown?
Gold prices and sales historically rise when investors seek safety, with anxiety heightened by the U.S. shutdown and trade tensions.
With rising anxieties, investors rush to Gold and other metals that are at least safe from inflation.
Gold served as a haven, while Bitcoin showed resilience as an independent risk asset. Bitcoin often suffers deeper drawdowns, but it recovers faster.
That risk-reward profile appeals to traders. BTC was only 4% below its ATH, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lagged far more.
Source: Checkonchain
Checkonchain data confirmed BTC outperformed equities. Bitcoin was up 6% relative to the Nasdaq, despite enduring a weak September.
BTC rose from $113k to $119k during the shutdown, while Gold slipped $15. This highlighted Bitcoin’s quick recovery against traditional hedges.
October–November outlook
It’s important to note that Bitcoin and Gold are overly different. Gold is battle-tested and has remained strong when the market shook, while Bitcoin is a newer and more challenging alternative to traditional norms.
In 2025, Gold delivered strong performance. Yet zooming out, Bitcoin remains far ahead.
Despite weaker returns against Gold, Bitcoin outpaced the Nasdaq and S&P 500, supported by Comparative Rolling Performance data.
Source: Checkonchain
BTC was up 6% relative to the Nasdaq at press time, even after its historically worst September.
As BTC enters October and November, months that historically sparked rallies, it could outpace Gold. In previous cycles, BTC averaged 22% rallies in October and 46% in November.
If repeated, BTC could surpass Gold by mid-November.
Checkonchain data suggest Bitcoin has not lost its digital gold appeal. This is a drawdown, not a structural decline.