XRP has spent the past few weeks on a downtrend after a bullish cycle earlier in the year, and this has left traders divided between caution and anticipation. However, as the year draws to a close, the interest in the altcoin is gradually changing from short-term volatility to what the new year could bring.
Interestingly, technical insights using the Relative Strength Index suggest that the current price action may be setting the stage for the token to shine in 2026, even if the market is not quite ready to reveal its hand just yet.
RSI Signals Point To A Completed Dip
One of the arguments supporting a bullish outlook comes from the 3-day Relative Strength Index highlighted by Dark Defender. According to the analyst, the RSI has already dropped into a zone that is known to indicate completed price corrections for XRP. This is because similar RSI conditions in 2024 were highlighted by periods before its price action returned decisively to the upside.
The chart accompanying his analysis shows XRP stabilizing near a horizontal support region, and this fits with the RSI flattening near oversold territory. According to the analyst, this type of structure suggests exhaustion on the sell side, even if price action continues to trade sideways in the next couple of days.
Speaking of stabilizing near a support region, XRP is currently trading around the $1.86 to $1.90 price range, which aligns closely with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension highlighted on the chart at approximately $1.8815. This support level aligns with a projection using the Elliott Wave Theory, and this contributes to the notion that the XRP price will rebound to the upside any time soon.
Building The Base For A Surge
In addition to the RSI momentum indicator, XRP’s price structure on the chart analyzed by Dark Defender supports the idea that the cryptocurrency is forming a base. The visual Elliott Wave count on the 3-day timeframe shows that the recent decline fits within a corrective sequence on sub-impulse wave 5. Interestingly, this sub-wave is an extension of a fourth impulse wave that traces its origin as far back as early 2025.
According to the Elliott Wave theory, this fourth impulse wave is expected to be followed by an impulsive Wave 5 that resolves to the upside. The projected impulse path on the chart shows how a confirmed breakout from this structure could push XRP into a massive rally. The price target in this case is around the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is marked at $5.85.
Dark Defender also linked this technical setup to timing, pointing out that the period around Christmas and the New Year could coincide with improving sentiment, and XRP will shine after the holidays. He also pointed to upcoming scarcity as another factor, which might be referring to the projected longer-term implications of Spot XRP ETFs.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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