Bitcoin has diverged and lagged behind gold and U.S. equities lately. It posted a yearly loss of 6% in 2025 – A move some analysts attributed to its distinct cyclical dynamics. In fact, if measured from the 2022 cycle bottom of $16k, BTC was still up +450% at its press time level of $88k.
The said pattern refers to the Bitcoin 4-year market performance. This can be tied to its post-halving events, which are typically associated with massive rallies. The next halving event, which is scheduled to occur in 2028, will further cut the BTC issuance rate by half.
Source: VanEck
Some crypto leaders, such as Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, have projected a potential end to Bitcoin’s cyclical market amid the adoption of tradFi via ETFs.
Nevertheless, key valuation models and most analysts foresee BTC topping $200k or more.
Bitcoin to $250,000?
One of the most used pricing models is the Bitcoin power law. It projects the asset’s long-term outlook based on historical data.
According to the model, BTC could hit $270k-$300k by 2027-2028. This price range is a conservative target though, with $1 million being the aggressive level (upper band and resistance level).
Source: Bitbo
The model identified past conservative targets, with only slight variance for the ambitious projections that coincided with the upper limit.
Similarly, the more capable Quantile model that factors BTC changing dynamics, also eyes the $240k-$250k range as a base case scenario. The level seemed to align with the ‘acceleration’ phase (yellow) of the model, something that has capped past rallies this cycle.
If the trend repeats itself, BTC could surge to $250,000 by 2028, with $100,000 as potential support.
Source: X/21st Capital
Unsurprisingly, these are some of the targets that have been floated by some top funds and asset managers.
VanEck, for example, predicted a potential rally to $300k-$1 million, citing supply compression and long-term dynamics. For Standard Chartered, BTC could reach $500k by 2028, with post-halving supply and ETFs viewed as key catalysts.
For her part, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently reduced her 2030 projections to $1.2 million, citing the growing adoption of stablecoins as a threat to BTC.
In the past, BTC was traded between retail investors and whales, or sophisticated long-term investors. This made it easier to predict BTC via the typical 4-year cycles.
However, now there are ETFs, which control 7% of the BTC supply, and BTC treasury firms that manage 4.9% of the supply, led by Strategy.
So, the next price rally may be driven by ETF inflows and other factors, rather than the post-halving event as widely expected by some users.
Furthermore, there are growing concerns over BTC quantum risks and a likely delay in upgrading the network to a more quantum-proof system. This could sour market sentiment.
Final Thoughts
- Key prediction models eye $250k as a moderate Bitcoin bullish target by 2028
- However, there remains a rising risk of a quantum computer that could drag BTC if not addressed swiftly.