Leading crypto analyst Jacob Crypto Bury has weighed in on the current state of the cryptocurrency market, suggesting the industry’s multi-year bull cycle is set to culminate.
Known for his critical and data-driven commentary, Jacob Bury points to an on-chain perspective indicating that Bitcoin is firmly positioned in a downtrend, a situation he believes will lead to a deeper correction in the coming year before a significant bottoming-out phase for digital assets in 2026.
The 2026 Bear Market Outlook
In his latest market analysis, Jacob Crypto Bury discussed the possibility of a prolonged bear market taking hold in the new year.
While acknowledging his long-term bullish view on the space, he highlighted the high likelihood that 2026 will see the market reset, following the historical four-year cycle pattern for Bitcoin.
The analyst pointed directly to a key technical indicator: the 50-week Moving Average.
“If we’re down below the 50-week moving average, effectively we’re in a downtrend. And that’s what we’re seeing right now for Bitcoin. We’re below that 50-week moving average. We’re in a downtrend. We’re not in a territory that feels bullish right now.“
He noted that the 50-week moving average is currently valued around $102,000. A failure to reclaim this level would reinforce the bearish outlook.
This technical caution aligns with his recent public forecast for a significant market drop. Jacob Bury recently posted about the projected bottom of the next cycle: “The path is $60,648 for Bitcoin and $1,612 for Ethereum,” suggesting a major correction from all-time highs will lead to these lower accumulation zones.
The analyst further speculated on potential downside targets for Bitcoin, indicating that a move toward the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could see the price drop back to the $60,000 to $70,000 range.
He noted this range would represent a “very nice accumulation range” for long-term investors.
Insights into Bitcoin Holding Patterns
The pessimistic outlook on the near-term future is supported by the current sentiment and on-chain data. The market’s overall emotional state is one of “extreme fear,” with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at a low 25.
In terms of on-chain activity, Jacob Bury highlighted a curious trend in the Bitcoin distribution history:
- Whales are Accumulating: The number of addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 Bitcoin has increased slightly over the past month.
- Retail is Selling: Conversely, the number of addresses holding between 1 to 10 Bitcoin has “drastically reduced,” dropping by about 6,000 addresses over a three-month period, suggesting smaller retail holders are capitulating or taking profits. These trends point to accumulation by larger holders amid general market caution.
While these indicators point to heightened market stress in the near term, the broader environment is simultaneously seeing developments that may shape a stronger long-term foundation.
Regulatory and Industry Developments
Despite the bearish technical and cycle forecast, Jacob Bury’s analysis did touch on several bullish developments that provide a strong long-term foundation for the sector:
- Rate Cut Speculation: Markets responded positively to expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, generally favorable for risk-on assets like crypto.
- Institutional Adoption: UAE national security official Mohammed Al Shamsi stated that “Bitcoin has become the key pillar in the future of financing,” highlighting its growing institutional recognition alongside the role of mining as the network’s “beating heart.”
- SEC Clarity: The SEC’s closure of the Ondo case regarding tokenized assets under new leadership signals a potential shift toward greater acceptance of tokenized securities in the United States.
In summary, Jacob Crypto Bury is operating with a split thesis: long-term, he remains unequivocally bullish on the crypto space, but he cautions investors to prepare for a multi-month period of bearish pressure leading to a major bottom in 2026, which he views as the ultimate opportunity for accumulation.
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