JPMorgan Puts Bitcoin At $150,000 In The Long-Term, But What About Its ‘Fair Value’?


Bitcoin has been on another recovery trend since this past weekend. It has continued on this path which has seen its balance above $44K. For most, this is a low value given that the digital asset was at $69K a few months ago. However, for JPMorgan strategists, this is not the case. Even at the current price which bitcoin has struggled hard to attain, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that BTC is still overvalued.

Bitcoin Fair Value Is 12% Less

In a recent research note from JPMorgan, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and others share thoughts around bitcoin. Even though the strategists are not particularly bearish on the digital asset, given their long-term outlook, they still believe that bitcoin is slightly overvalued. However, the value which Panigirtzoglou places BTC at is not that far from its current price, so it may be that bitcoin is following closely to what is expected.

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The team, led by Panigirtzoglou, places bitcoin’s ‘fair value’ at $38,000. The digital asset has since beaten this price point and left it in its rearview mirror, but the JPMorgan strategists say that this is where the asset should be trading at.

The strategists calculate the fair value of bitcoin using its volatility compared to that of gold. Currently, BTC’s volatility is roughly four times that of gold. However, when this volatility differential narrows to three times that of gold, the strategist explains that its fair value will then rise to $50,000.

“The biggest challenge for Bitcoin going forward is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption,” the note read.

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Bitcoin price chart from TradingView.com

BTC gains $1K in hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Putting BTC At $150,000

JPMorgan has always held a more bullish outlook for bitcoin in the long-term compared to the short-term. Last year, the strategists had put the price of BTC in the long term at $146,000. This had come at a time when the bull rally was in full bloom. At the same time, the strategists had put the price of the digital asset at $73,000 in the short term, a price mark that the asset is yet to hit.

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This time around, the strategists have moved up their expectations for the digital asset. Despite the bearish short-term outlook, the market strategists believe that bitcoin will go as high as $150,000 in the future. They, however, did not provide a time frame for this, but they have previously said that they expect BTC to hit $73,000 in 2022.

Bitcoin has fluctuated between $43,000 and $44,000 in the past 24 hours. The asset fell as low as $43,600 in the early hours of Thursday but quickly picked back up, gaining over $1,000 in value in a matter of hours. It is currently trading at $44,631 at the time of this writing, up 2.36% in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from The Guardian, chart from TradingView.com

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