Late Majority Entering the Crypto Arena: You are not EARLY anymore
Introduction
Recent data reveals that cryptocurrency adoption has already penetrated the late majority stage in most developed countries. Between 33–50% of adults interested in investing have already purchased crypto assets, indicating the market has moved beyond early adopters. This mainstream integration helps explain tempered return expectations and diminished volatility.
The Current Landscape
Surveys by NBC and France’s AMF regulator find that 21% of Americans and 12% of French adults have invested in cryptocurrencies. Compare this to 61% of Americans and 24% of French adults who have invested in stocks. So at minimum, one-third of adults are open to investing in their own crypto.
Extrapolating to other advanced economies, it is reasonable to estimate one-third to one-half of investing-inclined adults already hold some exposure to cryptocurrency. The pool of potential newcomers increasingly consists of late adopters rather than innovators. This signals a definite transition into the late majority demographic category.
Early adopters who enter new markets in the first 2.5% pioneered cryptocurrency investment a decade ago. The early majority, comprising the next 34%, steadily built exposure through the 2020 COVID-driven boom. We have now crossed into the late majority segment which accounts for another 34% per the technology adoption lifecycle model.
Diminishing Returns and Market Realism
Evidence includes cooling speculative fervor and return expectations. The crowd no longer anticipates another 10x or 100x multiplier from Bitcoin or Ethereum. A Rally survey found average 2022 price predictions of just $120,000 for Bitcoin and $10,000 for Ethereum. This pragmatic outlook acknowledges crypto’s transition toward an ordinary investment, not a moonshot.
The late majority does not chase hype or take undue risk. Their diligence and skepticism must be overcome before adopting an innovation. But the sheer size of this risk-averse group also limits the upside as they buy progressively higher prices with moderated positions. Early exponential gains require low market penetration.
Cryptocurrency now exhibits the traits of an asset reaching saturation among its core captive audience. Familiarity is widespread, coiners abound, and derivatives and funds are proliferating. Yet prices remain resilient due to broadening usage as a hedge and remittance rail. This balance fosters stability, not volatility.
Of course, cracks exist, as the FTX implosion revealed. But the survivors are battle-tested. Continuous adoption by the late majority allows crypto to entrench itself as a mature asset class even amid turmoil. Each cycle brings higher lows as the floor of participants expands.
Late majority entry caps unrealistic upside expectations while raising downside support. With the speculative frenzy diminishing, crypto integration into portfolios for non-correlated exposure can continue. The pitch evolves from high-risk rocket ships to stable diversification.
This adoption cycle progression mirrors the internet’s path. Early adopters recognized its latent power despite limited functionality. The early majority saw maturing use cases and productivity gains for joining. The late majority piled in once risks were proven low and rewards steady. Crypto is traversing the same route at a faster pace.
In conclusion, data indicates at least one-third of investing-oriented adults in advanced economies already own crypto. This marks the asset class’s transition into the late majority phase, characterized by broader adoption despite decreased profit potential. But reduced volatility permits persistent growth, setting the stage for crypto to fulfill aspirations as a digital asset class with staying power.
Late Majority Entering the Crypto Arena : You are not EARLY anymore was originally published in The Dark Side on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.