A large volume of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expires on August 1, 2025, positioning the crypto market for volatility.
Like monthly options expiry, weekly ones can influence price direction or cause price to pin near key strike levels as traders hedge or unwind positions.
Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expiry Looms With Over $7 Billion at Stake
Data on Deribit shows today’s expiring Bitcoin options have a maximum pain level or strike price of $117,000, which is well above its current price of $116,003.
Meanwhile, total open interest, the sum of all Put (Sale) and Call (Purchase) options, is 46,618. Expiring Bitcoin options today have a notional value of $5.6 billion.
Based on the current price, options traders hold Bitcoin options for around 48,568.75 BTC tokens.
With a Put-to-Call ratio (PCR) of 0.79, Deribit data shows a prevalence of Call options, suggesting a general bullish sentiment.
Elsewhere, Ethereum expiring options have a PCR of 0.91. This points to a cautious but optimistic outlook in the market, as purchase orders exceed sale orders.
Most traders will feel the most financial pain at the $3,550 maximum pain level in today’s Ethereum expiring options. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s price is well above its strike price.
Meanwhile, total open interest for expiring ETH options is 375,709, indicating that more capital is deployed on ETH options contracts than in BTC ones. This may also suggest that traders show greater interest in Ethereum’s near-term volatility.
Other reasons for more ETH open interest than Bitcoin are that Ethereum is becoming more dominant in derivatives markets amid an abounding Ether narrative. Data on Deribit shows the notional value for today’s expiring ETH options is $1.39 billion.
As options near expiration, prices tend to gravitate toward their respective max pain levels, suggesting a modest correction for ETH and a slight recovery for BTC. This is due to the actions of smart money, who sell options to retail traders, wanting them to expire worthless.
Their actions minimize payouts on both calls and puts by pinning prices near maximum pain levels.
Notably, this manipulation is not always intentional. Sometimes, just hedging behavior causes natural gravitation toward max pain.
However, when liquidity is thin and positioning is lopsided, it can look like the price is being steered there.
“BTC positions are wide, but price is holding right above max pain. ETH’s also pinned just above $3.5K. Will expiry act as a magnet or a springboard?” analysts at Deribit posed.
Corporate Purchases Provide Fragile Support
Elsewhere, analysts at Greeks.live point to a divided market sentiment, highlighting $116,000 as a critical support for Bitcoin. To the upside, the pioneer crypto faces potential resistance around $118,000.
“…[there’s] disagreement on whether the recent dip represents a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction,” wrote Greeks.live.
Notably, the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market pulled back, a correction likely ascribed to the recent FOMC decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
Despite the downside pressure on the market, Michael Saylor’s Strategy cushions the Bitcoin market from a prolonged spiral.
“Strategy Corp closed $2.52B IPO and immediately purchased 21,021 bitcoins at $117,256, providing significant institutional buying pressure,” analysts at Greeks.live added.
On the one hand, analysts point to the supply shock translating to increased buying pressure, which could catalyze an upside for the BTC price.
On the other hand, some see Strategy’s recent purchase as provisional support positioned around $114,000.
“Traders noted this purchase was likely the primary buy support at the 114 level, explaining why open interest remained flat during the bounce. Community expressed concern that without this institutional flow, price could have easily dropped to 115 or lower, highlighting the market’s current dependence on corporate treasury flows,” Greeks.live noted.
As today’s options near expiry, traders should brace for volatility, which could influence price actions into the weekend.
However, the market could stabilize soon after options expire at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, with traders adjusting to new market conditions.
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