 
 
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has issued a grim prediction for Bitcoin, forecasting that quantum computing will break the network’s encryption by the end of the decade. However, Bitcoin OG Adam Back argues that Bitcoin will remain impervious to quantum computing risks for 20-40 years.
In a recent interview, Palihapitiya has warned of looming quantum risks to Bitcoin in the coming years, citing the breakneck pace of innovation. According to the venture capitalist, quantum computing will be able to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic signature within five years.
Palihapitiya noted that the earliest risk will appear within 24 months, urging developers to brace for emerging quantum capabilities. For now, Bitcoin relies on the SHA-256 algorithm, which remains unbroken, providing unparalleled security for the blockchain.
However, Palihapitiya cites a study that Google’s Willow quantum chip with 4,000 stable, logical qubits will be able to break the RSA-2048. He revealed that ramping up the number of stable, logical qubits to 8,000 will crack Bitcoin’s SHA-256 using Grover’s algorithm.
At the moment, Google’s Willow quantum chip lacks the advanced logical qubit capabilities required for fault-tolerant, large-scale quantum computing. Meanwhile, IBM is predicting the rollout of its first fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, with systems capable of “thousands of logical qubits” scheduled for the 2030s.
 
Apart from Bitcoin, Palihapitiya added that other blockchains are also at risk, urging them to make significant network changes to be quantum-resistant. Previously, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko disclosed that the odds of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin’s signature by the end of the decade stand at 50%.
“Some of these chains will need to reimplement something at a pretty foundational level,” said Palihapitiya.
Adam Back Says Quantum Threat Is Two Decades Away
However, Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back has hit back at Palihapitiya’s claims, arguing that Bitcoin does not face any near-term quantum threats. He stated that quantum computing will only come close to cracking Bitcoin’s signature within the next 20-40 years.
Back argued that there are already quantum secure solutions, highlighting NIST’s SLH-DSA signature that is tipped to replace classical options. He stated that the Bitcoin network can implement the new signatures to remain ahead of the curve before quantum computers pose significant risks.
“Bitcoin can add over time, as the evaluation continues, and be quantum ready, long before cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive,” said Back.