Quantum Computing Won’t Break Bitcoin Tomorrow, A16z Says

 A16z crypto analyst discloses that quantum computers will not pose a threat to Bitcoin in the near future. Find out why post-quantum encryption must be deployed immediately, but signatures can be delayed. 

A16z crypto has disproved the common belief that quantum computing will overnight annihilate Bitcoin. The recent analysis of the venture firm differentiates between quantum hype and reality.  

Cryptographically relevant quantum computers are decades away, according to a16zcrypto on X. Theories that they are going to come even before 2030 have no evidence. The company cautions against early migrations to post-quantum cryptography, which would pose more security threats.  

Encryption Faces Immediate Danger

Sensitive data is already at risk due to the harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks. Opponents archive coded messages in this day and age to be decryptable later. Traffic at scale is being archived in nation-states.  

The implementation of post-quantum encryption should occur now. Hybrid systems are already implemented by Chrome and Cloudflare. iMessage and Signal (Apple) have since come in with their own protocol.  

The hybrid model is the combination of post-quantum algorithms and classical cryptography, which defends against quantum computers as well as possible post-quantum attacks.  

Signatures Tell a Different Story

There are no harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks on digital signatures. The blockchain of Bitcoin is entirely open. The quantum computers do not have any secrets to unravel in the future.  

It turns out that forging signatures, as a16zcrypto tweeted on X, is only achievable with the arrival of quantum computers. Previous signatures are non-retroactable. This does not create an urgency for migration.  

Key platforms are postponing post-quantum signature launches. The present plans incorporate major performance penalties. Web infrastructure favors unripe implementations.  

Post-quantum signatures are between 2.4KB and 8KB. The elliptic-curve signatures today require only 64 bytes. This is a 40-100x size enhancement.  

Bitcoin’s Unique Headaches

Beyond quantum technology, Bitcoin has special challenges. Governance is slow, and controversial changes can destroy hard forks. Coin migration is not possible passively.  

Hundreds of billions of coins, millions of potentially abandoned coins, are left vulnerable. Initial pay-to-public-key outputs reveal the public keys on-chain. Similar exposure is in taproot addresses.  

A16zcrypto on X states that quantum attacks are not going to occur in one evening. The algorithm provided by Shor needs to attack single keys in a one-by-one way. Initial attacks will be highly costly, and the speed will be very low.  

Bitcoin has poor transaction throughput,t which further complicates migration. Selling the risky money would require months at present rates. It should be planned now, even though the quantum threats are distant.  

The community has to make hard choices regarding the lost coins. The alternatives are to announce burned unmigrated coins after a time period. Instead, quantum computers might be able to retain vulnerable coins.  

Everyone is not pleased with either solution. There are legal concerns related to the use of quantum computers to claim private-keyless coins. Even where ownership is claimed, the theft and computer-fraud legislation can be utilized.  

Implementation Bugs Matter More

Greater immediate threats are: side-channel attacks and flaws in the implementation. Lattice signature schemes involve complex floating-point arithmetic. ML-DSA has numerous intermediate values that are sensitive.  

A number of Falcon implementations already been attacked by key-recovery attacks with successful results. The real dangers are enormous compared to the hypothetical quantum dangers in the future.  

Rainbow and SIKE, the two most promising quantum computers, have been broken with classical computing. This occurred far into the standardization of NIST. Early roll-out threatens to entrap failing plans.  

Blockchains ought to be in the careful way of web infrastructure. Both settings do not encounter harvest-now-decrypt-later signature attacks. Immaturity scheme costs and risks are still high.  

Now is the time to focus on auditing and formal verification in the crypto community. Bugs will pose a menace to systems much longer than remote quantum computers.

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