After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), several analysts are now predicting a smooth path for the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in 2024.
Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, said that there is a 70% chance of the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF in May 2024. This aligns with the SEC’s decision date for various applications, given the close relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Balchunas referred to insider information, indicating that spot ETH ETFs will be approved without a doubt, according to unofficial sources.
“The Ether spot is tied to the hip of Bitcoin spot for sure. It’s gonna go wherever it goes. It’s basically like on a 15-foot rope following it.”
Similarly, digital asset lawyer Joe Carlasare also expects the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs this year, though he anticipates a more extended timeline than other analysts.
Carlasare suggests that the SEC aims to set a precedent to discourage a flood of applications, similar to what happened with the Bitcoin ETF. Meanwhile, Steven McClurg, Chief Investment Officer of Valkyrie Funds, stated that, given the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it wouldn’t be surprising if regulators soon approved other ETFs for Ethereum and XRP.
During an appearance on Rug Radio’s FOMO Hour last week, Balchunas mentioned that the approval of an Ethereum ETF comes down to the legal strategy companies might adopt.
Balchunas highlighted the lawsuit Grayscale won recently after the SEC approved a Bitcoin futures ETF in 2021, arguing they couldn’t arbitrarily approve a Bitcoin futures ETF and simultaneously reject a spot BTC ETF.
The lawsuit cornered the SEC, among other reasons, leading them to approve the BTC ETF. According to Balchunas, now the SEC is in the same position because if they don’t approve the ETH ETF, they will face a lawsuit.
“Ipso facto, you have to approve an Ether spot [ETF], or you’re going to get sued again for the same exact reason,” explained Balchunas.
The upcoming key dates for the SEC’s decision on ETH ETFs are: May 23 for VanEck, May 24 for ARK 21Shares, May 30 for Hashdex, June 18 for Grayscale, July 5 for Invesco, August 3 for Fidelity, and August 7 for BlackRock.
Will the SEC surprise again with its permissive decision?