Solana has wiped out nearly all its three-month gains. The weekly chart shows a 10% decline, with a 6.2% fall in the past month, raising doubts about whether Solana’s altcoin rally is fading or about to weaken further.
Despite its history of sharp spikes, recent pattern rejections, and waning holder conviction signal potential deeper losses ahead. Here’s what the latest on-chain and chart data reveal.
HODL Waves Shrink, SOPR Signals Weak Conviction
Solana’s 3-month to 6-month cohort—mid-term holders—has dropped from 14.84% on July 21 to 12.96% as of August 20. This shows that wallets that held SOL through a solid portion of the recent rally are now actively exiting positions.
At the same time, short-term holders (1 day to 1 week) have also sharply declined—from 7.87% to just 4.06%. That’s a near 50% drop, showing that even those who jumped in recently aren’t sticking around.
HODL Waves show the distribution of held coins across different time bands, helping identify which age groups (like short-term or mid-term holders) are increasing or decreasing their positions.
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SOPR confirms this weakness. Though it recently bounced from 0.99 to 1.00, it failed to match the previous local peak strength. When the Solana price last hit $201 on August 13, SOPR only touched 1.03, weaker than the 1.04+ levels seen during July’s high.
Earlier in the year, SOPR reached 1.05 to 1.06 with even lower prices, suggesting that current sellers either exited with thinner profits or just cut out altogether. It shows conviction is fading fast; even small price upticks trigger exits.
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) tracks whether coins moved on-chain were sold at a profit or a loss, where values above 1 mean profit-taking and below 1 imply loss realization.
Double Top Solana Price Pattern Spells Trouble: $161 in Sight
Solana’s price chart is flashing a clean double top. The first peak was $206 on July 21, followed by a slightly higher second peak at $209 on August 14. Despite the higher high, the market rejected both levels strongly; classic double top behavior.
This is a bearish pattern that often signals further downside.
Using Fibonacci retracement from the swing high of $209 to the recent low of $175, Solana’s price structure shows key levels:
- $183 remains crucial support. A breakdown below this increases bearish risk.
- If $175 fails again, the next downside target is $161, below which the entire structure would turn bearish, and the Solana price might start downtrending sharply.
- To invalidate the bearish setup, Solana must break above $200+ with a strong candle close.
For now, double rejections and selling pressure from both mid-term and short-term holders put downside at the forefront.
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