From a recent analysis, it has emerged that there is still the possibility that the bull run of Bitcoin could resume.
It is actually a non-trivial dynamic, and it requires a small shift in mindset to be understood, but in fact, it could indicate a completely new scenario compared to those commonly circulating during this period.
The truly curious thing is that it is a dynamic that has been in place for many years, but until now widely underestimated.
Bitcoin and dollar
The trend of the price of Bitcoin in dollars appears to be inversely correlated with the trend of the Dollar Index in the medium term.
The Dollar Index measures the changes in the real value of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies, primarily including the euro.
When the Dollar Index rises, it means that the dollar is appreciating, while if it falls, it means conversely that it is depreciating.
When the dollar appreciates, the price of Bitcoin in dollars tends to decrease, while when USD depreciates, BTC/USD tends to rise.
However, this dynamic is only in effect in the medium or short term, because in the long term, there is a prevailing direct correlation between the price of Bitcoin in dollars and USCPI, which is the consumer price index in the USA.
To be honest, in the short term, the price trend of Bitcoin in dollars is not always inversely correlated with DXY, but in the medium term, it almost always is.
The bull run of Bitcoin
The bull run of Bitcoin’s price at the end of 2024 occurred in an unusual manner.
In fact, in the medium-short term, BTC/USD rose while DXY was also rising. Indeed, at the beginning of 2025, the price of Bitcoin then fell because the anomaly simply disappeared.
However, during 2025 the Dollar Index fell, at least until September, and indeed the price of Bitcoin, after realigning in April with the trend of DXY, started to rise again, enough to record new all-time highs already in May, with the peak at the beginning of October.
The problem, however, is that on October 9, the declining trend of DXY for 2025 began to show signs of weakening, and on Wednesday 29 it halted.
Most likely due to this dynamic, the price of Bitcoin has fallen.
At the moment, therefore, it would seem that the bull run of Bitcoin, which started at the end of April and ended at the beginning of October, has definitively come to a halt.
However, by studying the trend of DXY, a different scenario emerges, according to which it is still possible that it could restart.
The Comparison with 2017
The trend of the price of Bitcoin during 2025 closely resembles that of 2017.
The only significant difference is precisely October, and in particular the last days of the month which in 2017 were very positive, with the resumption of the bull run, while in 2025 they were decidedly negative.
Therefore, comparing 2025 with 2017, it emerges that the general trend of Bitcoin’s price was similar only until October, because at that point 2025 started to diverge from 2017.
However, it has been discovered that this does not apply to the Dollar Index.
Indeed, the 2025 Dollar Index is still extremely similar to 2017, so similar that it can hardly be a mere coincidence.
Among other things, 2017 was also the first year of Donald Trump in the White House during his first term, just as 2025 is the first year of his second term.
In October 2017, the Dollar Index interrupted its downward trend, exactly as happened this year, and until about mid-November, it followed an upward mini-trend. It is possible that the same thing is happening this year.
However, in the second half of November, it resumed its decline, reaching the cycle’s low in February of the following year.
The similarities are so timely and precise that it leads one to seriously think that the same thing could happen this time as well.
The Anomaly of Bitcoin
At the end of October 2017, when the Dollar Index was rising, the price of Bitcoin theoretically should have decreased.
Instead, not only did it rise, but a large speculative bubble began to inflate, which only burst in the second half of December, with the Dollar Index in full decline.
This should be considered in all respects as an anomaly, meaning a dynamic that for a few months did not follow the normal trend, much like what happened at the end of 2024.
It would therefore be incorrect to expect that in this last quarter of 2025 a similar anomaly could occur, especially since the price of BTC is correctly decreasing this time instead of rising.
Therefore, the comparison between 2025 and 2017 for Bitcoin simply can no longer be made, precisely because starting from the last days of October 2017, an anomaly was generated that is very unlikely to be repeated.
In other words, it seems that it is not advisable to rely on cyclical analysis of Bitcoin’s price in dollars, but rather on the Dollar Index, to then derive insights regarding the movements of BTC/USD.
The recovery of the bull run
All this, however, also means that the trend of the price of BTC in this last quarter of 2025 could simply continue to follow an inverse trend compared to DXY.
Well, if the Dollar Index after mid-November were to resume falling, as happened in 2017, and its decline were to continue until February, as happened in 2017, one could expect a resurgence of the Bitcoin bull run in a couple of weeks or so, with a peak in February.
It should be noted that if DXY continued to follow a trend very similar to that of 2017, and if the price of Bitcoin in dollars continued to simply follow an inverse trend, one could hypothesize a drop to around $90,000 in the next two weeks, followed by a rebound possibly even surpassing $150,000 in the first two months of 2026.