There are several predictions circulating regarding the price of Bitcoin in 2024.
The majority seems to be positive, but perhaps this is only a consequence of the excellent 2023.
The fact is that this year there are three factors that could have a positive impact on the price, and this leads many to believe that Bitcoin could further grow.
Bitcoin price predictions for 2024
Many are convinced that in 2024 a new great bull run will begin.
Some believe that this bull run will end during the current year, others believe it will continue until 2025.
It is not always clear whether these predictions refer to 2024 or 2025, so it is advisable to take as a reference the maximum price indicated for the hypothetical new major bull run, regardless of whether it occurs this year or next year.
The only case in which it is clear that the forecast refers to 2024 only is that of JP Morgan, according to which the price of BTC at the end of the year could reach $45,000.
However, it should be noted that in recent days this figure has already been exceeded, since Bitcoin has also reached up to $49,000, so in fact JP Morgan analysts hypothesize a lateralization in 2024.
Many others, on the other hand, are optimistic and predict a further increase.
The next bull run
All three major Bitcoin bull runs in the past (2013, 2017, and 2012) occurred the year after the three halvings took place.
The fourth halving will occur in April of this year, so if history were to repeat itself, the next bull run should happen in 2025.
However, this year the halving will occur one month earlier than the previous one in 2020, and there are other factors that could trigger a major bull run already this year.
First of all, the Bitcoin spot ETFs launched yesterday on the US market, which could drain BTC from crypto exchanges, thus reducing its supply.
The initial data suggests that it will take weeks, or perhaps months, before a significant reduction in Bitcoin supply on exchanges can actually be observed thanks to the BTC immobilized by the ETF.
Then, however, to this will be added the reduction in supply due to the halving, since miners will have roughly half the BTC to sell compared to now.
This is a phenomenon that starting from the end of April will add up to the previous one, so it is possible that the consequences can already be seen in May.
Finally, there is the cut in interest rates by the Fed, which means the reduction of the restrictiveness of the monetary policy of the world’s largest central bank. The cut should start as early as March, but it is from May onwards that it could become significant.
So the second half of 2024 could be the right time for a new major bull run to occur.
The new ATH already in 2024? All the predictions on the price of Bitcoin
Regarding the forecasts regarding the maximum price that Bitcoin could reach during the next major bull run, there are many differences among the various analysts.
According to the panel of 31 experts from Finder, the price could reach $90,000.
This panel correctly predicted the $40,000 reached by the end of 2023, but $90,000 as the maximum price during the next bull run is not such an optimistic forecast.
In fact, the current all-time high (ATH, All Time High) is $69,000 reached in November 2021, so the Finder panel only hypothesizes a +28% increase compared to the ATH of the last major bull run.
Many of the other analysts are definitely more optimistic.
It ranges from Adam Back’s $100,000, the only person mentioned by Satoshi Nakamoto in his famous 2008 whitepaper, to Mike Novogratz’s $500,000, who has made several accurate predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the past.
There are also those who, like Arthur Hayes, hypothesize the achievement of one million dollars, but Hayes often seems to have as his main goal to amaze or make an impression, rather than trying to tell the facts as they are.
A middle ground is represented by Pantera Capital’s $148,000 and Tim Draper’s $250,000.
The majority of analysts still hypothesize a peak above $100,000, which is only a 45% increase from the current ATH.
Previous ATH
The ATH of the first major bull run, in 2013, was $1,100, while the second one, at the end of 2017, was around $20,000.
So in that case, the new ATH was about twenty times higher than the previous one.
The third one was $69,000, which is only 3.5 times higher than the previous one.
However, it must be said that at the end of 2021 Chinese capital disappeared, due to the ban in May of the same year, and perhaps without that ban the price could have even reached $100,000, recording a x5 from the previous highs.
This year the Chinese ban is almost non-existent, because although formally it still exists, in reality the Chinese are still investing in BTC. Furthermore, in Hong Kong it has effectively been removed, so Chinese capital is currently not lacking.
At this point, if during the next hypothetical major bull run the price of Bitcoin were to increase by that x5 that was missing in 2021, the price should reach up to $350,000, a little more than the middle ground of Tim Draper’s prediction.
All of this is added to the fact that the hypothesis that the price of BTC could exceed $200,000 during the next major bull run is shared by several analysts.
Obviously, however, there is not only no certainty that the bull run will occur this year, but there is also no certainty that it will occur next year or in the following years. These are all just hypotheses, with no certainty (except for the April halving).