For some time now, the value trend of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has been very similar.
Focus on the value trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Since November last year, the two trends have been proceeding almost in unison.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)
The market value trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in recent days is rather flat and monotonous.
In fact, it has been doing nothing but lateralizing within a very compressed range between $22,200 and $22,500 now since Friday 3 March, with only a few brief excursions just above or just below.
It is as if after the sudden drop from $23,400 to $22,400 last Friday the price has stabilized.
In fact, that drop was only the latest in a series that began on 21 February, after failing for the fourth time to break the $25,000 mark.
Something similar had already happened in early February to Bitcoin, after it failed its fourth attempt to break above $24,000 on Thursday 2 March.
Then between late January and early February it tried four times to move steadily above $24,000 without succeeding, at which point it began to fall, stopping eight days later around $21,600.
Thereafter, it later lateralized around that figure for four days, only to suddenly break down that wall and head straight for $25,000 on 15 February.
At that point, it seems to have begun a phase similar to the one that just ended, but at levels $1,000 higher.
In fact, it tried four times to break above $25,000, only to start falling on 21 February.
The descent lasted ten days, instead of the eight days of the previous medium-short-term cycle, and it has now been sideways in the very narrow range of $22,200 to $22,500 for four days.
Should it manage to return above $24,000 within a couple of days, or even break through the $25,000 wall, the medium-short-term cycle would have replicated itself in almost the same way.
It is worth noting that $25,000 seems a much more difficult resistance to break through than $24,000.
Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)
The trend in the market value of Ethereum (ETH) has been very similar, although at different levels.
It was again on Friday 3 March that the price of ETH fell to $1,560, and since then it has continued to lateralize within a very compressed range between $1,560 and $1,580.
This trend seems identical to that of Bitcoin’s price.
Previously, while Bitcoin tried unsuccessfully four times to move steadily above $25,000, Ethereum tried unsuccessfully to move above $1,700, although for three days, from 17 to 19 February included, it seemed to have succeeded.
The decline began on 21 February, at the same time as Bitcoin’s.
In contrast, between late January and early February, when Bitcoin was trying four times to exceed $24,000, Ethereum’s price had remained almost consistently above $1,600.
From this difference it seems to emerge that at this stage Ethereum’s price trend is influenced by Bitcoin’s, and not vice versa.
It is worth noting that another difference concerns percentage movements.
For example, after the four failed attempts to get back above $24,000, BTC then lost 11% in eight days, while ETH lost 13% in five days.
And after the failure of the fourth attempt to get above $25,000, BTC lost 11% again, while ETH lost 9%, this time both in ten days.
The comparison between Bitcoin and Ethereum: value trend, regulation and market
Thus what seems to be dragging the trend of Ethereum’s market value during this period is the trend of Bitcoin’s market value, with small differences that make it clear how the two trends actually move independently, but with the latter heavily influencing the former.
Extending the comparison to the whole of 2023 shows that Bitcoin since late 2022 has gained 34%, while ETH has gained 30%. And extending it to November 2021, when all-time highs were touched, BTC loses 67% while ETH 68%.
Thus, there are more differences in this early 2023 in favor of Bitcoin than there have been since the highs were touched.
Specifically, in the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s price has lost 3.5% while Ethereum’s has lost 5%.
It is possible that this difference is affected by the words of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently, whereby he suggests that only Bitcoin is a commodity, while Ethereum, like other cryptocurrencies, should actually be considered securities.
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