What are the chances of Bitcoin [BTC] retesting $42k in near-term

Bitcoin’s price has been on a downtrend for more than a month. However, the price action since 18 April seems to have formed a bullish pattern, suggesting that an uptrend is on the horizon for BTC. Therefore, investors need to be prepared for a quick run-up to significant hurdles.

Bitcoin price ready to explode

Bitcoin’s price has declined roughly 22% since 28 March and set a swing low at $37,370 on 1 May. However, the downswing since 18 April has formed three lower lows and four lower highs, which when connected using trend lines result in the formation of a falling wedge.

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This technical formation forecasts an 8.23% upswing, determined by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low of the falling wedge. Adding this measure to the breakout point at $38,422 gives a target of $41,618.

Adding credence to this bullish outlook is the bullish divergence between Bitcoin price and the relative strength index (RSI). The technical setup is formed when an asset forms a lower low and the RSI forms higher lows, denoting the said divergence.

However, since the momentum is rising, the price eventually resolves to the upside. Therefore, investors need to be aware of a minor pullback that retests the upper trend line of the wedge, which will be the entry point.

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While the target is $41,618, there is a chance for the run-up to go to $42,979, bringing the total run-up to 12%.

Source: TradingView, BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

Adding a tailwind to this bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price is the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This indicator is primarily used to gauge the sentiment of holders as it tracks the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC tokens over the past month.

As mentioned in previous articles, a negative value indicates that the short-term holders are underwater and a positive value indicates that these holders are in profit. The probability of a sell-off is high in the latter condition is high, therefore, long-term investors buy when the MVRV value is negative.

Additionally, Santiment’s backtests show that -10% to -15% is where long-term holders accumulate. Therefore, the aforementioned range is termed an “opportunity zone,” since the risk of a sell-off is less.

The 30-day MVRV has bounced off the historical bottom at -9% and is currently hovering around –2.65%. Furthermore, the local top is formed at around 10%, indicating that there is more room for BTC to move to the upside, which coincides with the outlook detailed from a technical perspective.

Source: Santiment

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