Key Takeaways
Polymarket uses blockchain and real-money bets to forecast politics and economics with striking accuracy, but faces legal hurdles and risks of manipulation from powerful token holders.
From the chaotic swirl of presidential races to the tremors of the global economy, people have always craved a glimpse of the future. A new kind of forecaster, born from blockchain technology, now claims to offer just that.
Polymarket, a prediction market running on the Polygon network, has captivated observers with its knack for calling major events, often putting professional pollsters and pundits to shame.
This report digs into the platform’s track record, questioning how it works, what it gets right, and where it falls short.
A new political weathervane
Polymarket’s political markets have been its main claim to fame. The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election became its showpiece.
While news channels and traditional polls painted a picture of a race too close to call, money on Polymarket consistently flowed toward the person who would eventually win, signaling a clear lead.
This wasn’t a fluke. A University of Cincinnati economist pointed out that Polymarket’s performance in 2024 showed how blockchain could be more than just a casino for investors.
Unlike polls, which can take days to reflect a change in public mood, the platform reacts instantly. Odds on Polymarket have been seen swinging wildly during live debates or in the minutes after a major news story breaks, creating a living graph of voter sentiment.
Still, the platform isn’t perfect. Skeptics initially argued that the user base, heavy with crypto enthusiasts, carried its own political baggage that might distort the odds.
But as results from several elections rolled in, it seemed the market’s core function—forcing people to bet real money—was surprisingly good at correcting for those biases.
Taking Wall Street’s temperature
While politics brought Polymarket into the spotlight, its ability to predict economic shifts is growing fast.
The platform now hosts active markets on everything from inflation numbers (CPI) and job reports (NFP) to the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
It’s still early for a full head-to-head comparison with big bank forecasts, but the initial signs are intriguing.
On Fed rate decisions, for instance, Polymarket’s odds have often mirrored or even front-run the expert consensus found in tools like the CME FedWatch.
Ahead of one November FOMC meeting, traders had already priced in a 77% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. In other markets, bettors are staking money on Bitcoin and Ether hitting new all-time highs in 2025.
Polymarket also lets people bet on big-picture economic questions, like the odds of a U.S. recession. These markets pull together the feelings of thousands of individuals worldwide, offering a live measure of economic fear.
After new tariffs were announced in April 2025, the chance of a recession on the platform shot up from 51% to 60% within 48 hours.
The real edge, just like with elections, is the speed. A Wall Street Journal economist survey comes out every so often; Polymarket’s recession odds change with every single trade, every minute of the day.
Why it works: Crowds and cold, hard cash
Two simple ideas explain why a platform like Polymarket can be so accurate. The first is the “wisdom of crowds,” the theory that a large, diverse group’s average guess is better than any single expert’s.
Polymarket attracts people from all over the world, each with their own information and way of thinking. The market price, then, reflects the combined weight of all that scattered knowledge.
But it’s not just a poll. The second idea, “skin in the game,” is what gives the crowd its wisdom. People are betting their own money.
They get paid for being right and lose cash for being wrong. This financial risk tends to weed out noise, wishful thinking, and cheap talk, pushing participants to make bets based on real analysis.
Studies on prediction markets have long confirmed they produce solid forecasts, and early research on Polymarket pegs its accuracy at 90% or higher.
Manipulation and men in suits
For all its success, Polymarket has deep-seated problems. Its decentralized design, a source of transparency, is also a source of risk.
The threat of manipulation by traders with deep pockets—the so-called “whales”—is very real.
There have been several messy market resolutions where a few large token holders were accused of hijacking the outcome in what critics called “governance attacks.”
In one notorious case, a market about a U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal paid out in a way that seemed to defy what actually happened, causing an uproar over the system’s integrity.
Polymarket’s system for resolving bets, which uses an oracle and a dispute process backed by UMA token holders, is meant to be secure. But these incidents show that keeping a decentralized system fair is a constant battle.
On top of that, the law remains a massive roadblock. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has claimed authority, treating some prediction markets as unregulated, illegal gambling.
Polymarket settled with the agency in 2022 and has since blocked U.S. users. This shaky legal ground could stunt the platform’s growth, shrinking the diverse crowd that makes it accurate in the first place.
Polymarket’s legal tightrope walk
The cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket has lived a chaotic legal life, bouncing between a crackdown by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a Justice Department (DOJ) probe, and a confusing web of bans across the world.
Recently, however, federal investigators in the U.S. dropped their cases, signaling a thaw in the regulatory winter and clearing a path for the company to possibly return to America.
The CFTC and the VPN problem
Polymarket’s biggest legal headache in the U.S. was that it offered financial contracts based on future events without getting the government’s permission.
In January 2022, the CFTC hit Polymarket with a $1.4 million fine and ordered it to stop operating an unregistered trading platform. Polymarket agreed, cutting off access to U.S. customers and using geofencing to block them.
But the feds suspected U.S. residents were simply using virtual private networks (VPNs) to get around the block. This problem is a central headache for any online company trying to follow country-specific rules in an era of easy-to-use privacy tools.
The pressure mounted. In November 2024, federal agents raided the New York apartment of Polymarket’s founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan.
They seized his electronics as part of a DOJ criminal investigation into whether the platform was turning a blind eye to its American user base, an inquiry that reportedly heated up in the last days of the Biden administration.
A change in the climate
Then, in a major reversal in July 2025, both the DOJ and the CFTC officially closed their investigations without bringing any charges.
The decision was widely seen as a sign of a more crypto-friendly attitude from the new Trump administration. A relieved Shayne Coplan posted on X, saying,
“After cooperating and engaging, we’ve been cleared of any wrongdoing. Justice prevailed… God Bless America.”
With the investigations behind it, Polymarket now has a chance to re-enter the U.S. market legally. The company could try to register with the CFTC as a legitimate exchange or team up with a firm that already has a license.
This would be a huge step for a platform that has handled massive trading volumes, especially around U.S. elections.
Polymarket’s push for the mainstream
Coming off a huge year of user growth and a game-changing legal win, the prediction market Polymarket is gearing up for a major expansion.
The company’s future plans, pieced together from recent announcements and comments from its leadership, show a clear strategy: scale up the technology, launch new kinds of markets, and make a hard push for everyday users through major partnerships.
With legal investigations by the DOJ and CFTC now behind it, Polymarket is free to chase aggressive growth, which includes a potential return to the rich U.S. market.
This newfound legal peace has removed a massive weight that was holding back its long-term ambitions to become the default platform for real-time forecasting.
Building for the future
Polymarket’s technology plan is tied to its use of the Polygon network, a system that makes Ethereum [ETH] transactions faster and cheaper.
This choice is why the platform can handle high volumes with low fees, but planned upgrades to Polygon are expected to boost its performance even further.
This is essential for handling huge spikes in traffic during major events and keeping the user experience smooth.
The company is also moving toward a more decentralized form of leadership. Plans are in the works to introduce a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO), which would give users a real vote in how the platform is run and what features are built next.
This reflects the broader Web3 goal of community control.
New bets and new features
Polymarket made its name on political markets, especially during the 2024 U.S. election, but it is now actively branching out to keep users engaged between election cycles.
The company is adding new categories like sports betting and entertainment awards, hoping to attract a wider audience that is active year-round.
This move is meant to build a more comprehensive platform that complements its popular markets on politics and current events. The platform will also continue to broaden its range of prediction topics, from finance and tech to viral internet trends.
The ability for users to suggest their own markets is a key feature that will likely be improved to encourage more community-created content.
Breaking into the mainstream
Polymarket is making its boldest move yet to reach a mainstream audience, with a major partnership at the center of its strategy.
The platform has teamed up with X (formerly Twitter) to display live prediction odds directly on the social media site, exposing its data to millions of users.
This integration also includes Grok, X’s AI chatbot, which will provide real-time context and analysis to help users better understand the prediction markets2.
To make the platform more accessible, Polymarket is simplifying the user experience for people unfamiliar with crypto.
All bets will be placed using the stablecoin USDC, and services like MoonPay will allow users to easily convert traditional currency into crypto—lowering the barrier to entry.
Recent legal victories are another key part of Polymarket’s expansion. With U.S. regulators dropping investigations and approving its reentry into the market, the platform is now seen as a safer and more legitimate option4.
CEO Shayne Coplan has confirmed plans to reopen access to U.S. residents, unlocking a massive new user base.