Key Takeaways
How has the memecoin sector performed in 2025?
H2 2025 has been tough, as the segment posted losses of 43%.
What could trigger the next memecoin season?
If the broader market recovers, with no new dominant narrative to speculate on.
FLOKI’s impressive run on Monday, following a positive Elon Musk post, has sparked the nostalgia of the “memecoin supercycle” of 2024.
Between 2023 and 2024, the memecoin narrative was dominant as traders avoided perceived “VC tokens.” The broader crypto market rally in late 2024 lifted them even higher. The uptrend extended in early 2025, but stalled after Official Trump coin [TRUMP] debuted.
Are privacy coins capping memecoins’ recovery?
A recovery attempt in Q2-Q3 2025 didn’t stick for long before the privacy coin narrative became more popular. In fact, on a YTD (year-to-date) basis, memecoins’ performance has dropped by 43%.
Source: Artemis
On the contrary, privacy coins led by Zcash [ZEC] and Monero [XMR] have dominated the sector performance chart.
Privacy coins have mooned by 120%. Apart from Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH], another best-performing segment has been exchange tokens, with BNB hitting new highs in October.
Assessing potential memecoin catalysts
So, when will the memecoin supercycle be back?
Unless there’s no other hot narrative like currently with privacy coins, memecoin momentum could take a little while. The broader weak sentiment could also derail degens betting on the segment.
A look at the overall performance revealed that the sector has exploded during broader rallies. In fact, there was a surge in late 2024, and in early Q2 and Q3 2025.
If the trend continues, then perhaps another rally may be likely if BTC climbs higher again and boosts speculative demand.
Source: Coingecko
Most analysts expect market relief after the government shutdown is over. So, November or December could be a crucial month to track.
Besides, the memecoin scene has been typically concentrated in Solana [SOL], BNB Chain and Base. So, any capital inflows into these ecosystems could point to where the next action might be.
In the last 30 days, Base has recorded $2.4 billion in Capital Net Flows, while Solana and BNB Chain saw figures of $181 million and $143 million, respectively.
Source Artemis
In other words, if the memecoin season was on, then the Base ecosystem could offer more gems with better returns than other chains.
That said, the most aggressive memecoin action has been in Solana. Meteora, one of the Solana platforms that drives memecoin trading, is set to launch its token (MET) on 23 October.
If the debut is successful, perhaps some rotation could happen to other memecoins across its ecosystem. Still, it won’t be a broader rally if the overall market sentiment remains muted.