In the world of Crypto, there are two kinds of players you’ll see pop up in the Discord & wider ecosystem;
Retention Math
Let’s start with the obvious: not everyone sticks around.
Based off of recent promotional efforts, for every 10 new players who try to understand a crypto website or project, less than 1 is retained long-term (beyond 2 weeks); with about 2 in 10 being retained for days and then leaving. That means 90% treat the game as a quick experiment, but the 10% who stay end up forming the backbone of an active userbase. They’re the ones showing up to Discord events, participating in tournaments, and keeping the ecosystem alive round after round; these players are the ones that interact with our ingame skin economy (for example) and are the most valuable to the project in both short-term & long-term aspects.
Invite Math
Inviting people is even more painful in terms of conversion rates. Out of the 10 people who are invited to the game, only 3 seem to care enough to go online and create a wallet. The rest 7 simply go missing and do not get past the invite link. Their absence greatly restructures the player base which in turn means growth is inversely proportional to the number of invites sent.
Exposure Math
Now zoom out to social media. CryptoRoyale tweets, memes, or clips might reach thousands of people, but only about 1% of that exposure translates into any action at all. And here’s where the naturally occurring wallet holders come in.
Naturally Occurring Wallet Holders = The Bag Holders
These are the wallets born from that 1% who take action from our diverse social media exposure (approx 50k views per week). But unlike retained players, they rarely — if ever — participate in the game itself. They’re the “bag holders” of the ecosystem: individuals who buy in with the expectation of financial return (or sometimes just pure gamble) but remain detached from the actual gaming side.
I’ve gotten more than a few DMs from these folks — and they’re always price-action driven. They’re not asking about new maps or mechanics, they’re asking about ROI, token charts, or whether Royale is “moon ready.” They live in the financial ecosystem, not the gaming ecosystem. Their wallets are technically part of the playerbase, but in practice they behave more like speculative investors than active players.
Why This Distinction Matters
On paper, both groups look like “users.” But in reality, one group plays Royale for the fun and sticks around despite price swings. The other only shows up when the candles turn green. Both matters, because the bag holders add liquidity and visibility, while retained players add culture and community. Together, they form the two pillars that keep CryptoRoyale alive.
Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice.
Who Stays, Who Strays: The Hidden Math of Crypto Communities was originally published in The Capital on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.