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Despite BTC hovering near $93,000, analysts say the decline is not a bearish signal. Instead, it reflects deeper structural shifts that are typically associated with strong market conditions, not weakening ones.
The largest driver behind the outflows is the accelerating move toward self-custody.
As prices rise, long-term holders and high-net-worth investors increasingly transfer their BTC to cold wallets, removing potential sell pressure from exchanges. This pattern, historically typical in bull markets, signals confidence and long-term conviction rather than fear.
That said, the rapid growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs builds on this. U.S. issuers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and, more recently, Vanguard, are attracting heavy inflows. However, these assets are custodied outside centralized exchanges.
 
As institutional capital moves into ETF structures, exchange reserves naturally shrink. Analysts view this as a structural sign of institutional adoption rather than distress.
A third factor is the recent derivatives reset. The late-November sell-off triggered sweeping liquidations, particularly during Asian trading hours, reducing margin deposits and the amount of BTC held on Binance.
This dynamic is short-term and mechanical, rather than reflective of a broader shift in sentiment.
Binance’s recent compliance upgrades have also prompted some users to rebalance holdings. However, this represents regulatory normalization rather than negative pressure.
Overall, a decline in exchange reserves typically tightens the circulating supply. That environment has historically supported medium- to long-term appreciation. The current trend aligns with a market in re-accumulation mode.
In other news, corporate adoption and AI-driven models fuel forecasts above $150,000, and a break below the $102.6K support could validate bearish technical setups.
Moreover, CoinMarketCap data shows that macro and technical conditions are supportive. BTC has rebounded 11% from November’s $82K low, helped by “seller exhaustion” after roughly $19 billion in liquidations cleared excess leverage.
A bullish MACD crossover and neutral RSI suggest room for upward momentum, with resistance at $101K and support at $86.3K.