Key Takeaways
Bitcoin hovered near $118K as miner inactivity and whale accumulation support bullish momentum. Bearish sentiment and shorting may trigger a squeeze, with $124K–$130K possible if support holds.
Since mid-2024, Bitcoin [BTC] has rallied from around $60K to nearly $119K, yet miners have remained noticeably inactive throughout the uptrend.
At press time, BTC traded around $118K while total miner reserves were at 1.809M BTC—among the lowest levels recorded since early 2022.
Typically, aggressive miner offloading signals market tops, but their reluctance to sell suggests ongoing supply discipline. Therefore, this lack of distribution may allow institutional flows and ETF demand to steer momentum.
The muted miner behavior continues to reinforce Bitcoin’s bullish structure in the medium term, provided these reserve levels stay suppressed.
Can Bitcoin break free from its $120K resistance ceiling?
Bitcoin recently tapped the $120K mark but quickly pulled back to ~$117.9K, signaling short-term exhaustion at resistance.
At the time of writing, the Parabolic SAR flipped above BTC’sprice, suggesting slowing momentum, while the RSI cooled to 61 from previously overbought levels.
Prices remained within an ascending channel, but the lower boundary at $116K now acts as critical support.
However, unless BTC breaks above the $120K–$122K resistance zone with volume confirmation, upside continuation remains at risk.
Therefore, the $116K–$118K zone must hold to preserve the current trend structure amid indecisive price action.
Source: TradingView
Will fear-driven sentiment interrupt Bitcoin’s bullish trend?
Weighted sentiment has turned negative, falling below -1.03, at press time, reflecting a wave of fear or skepticism among participants.
Meanwhile, Social Dominance has declined to around 27%, suggesting reduced crowd attention compared to previous local highs.
This combination of weakening sentiment and fading dominance indicates a cooling retail narrative around BTC. Historically, such conditions have often preceded consolidation or temporary pullbacks.
However, in contrarian setups, fading optimism sometimes marks accumulation zones. Therefore, unless sentiment and visibility recover soon, Bitcoin’s rally could lose steam in the short term.
Source: Santiment
Are exchange outflows signaling whale accumulation?
Exchange netflows remained firmly negative, with a recent -11.7K BTC outflow marking a 129.75% drop in exchange balances.
This consistent trend of BTC moving off exchanges reflects strong accumulation behavior from whales or long-term holders.
Typically, such outflows reduce sell-side liquidity and help create a supply crunch over time. Therefore, the ongoing drainage from exchanges aligns with a bullish outlook, provided no major inflow spikes appear to disrupt the balance.
So far, the absence of inflows suggests holders are not preparing to sell, keeping upside potential intact.
Source: CryptoQuant
Will aggressive shorting backfire on Bitcoin bears?
The derivatives market has flipped in favor of bears, as of writing, with the Long/Short ratio at 0.88 and short positions dominating at 53.1%.
This tilt toward short exposure often sets the stage for a potential short squeeze—especially when combined with strong spot accumulation.
Meanwhile, taker sell volume continues to outpace buys, further confirming the bearish stance among leveraged traders.
However, if Bitcoin defends the $116K–$118K support zone, heavily shorted positions could unwind rapidly. Such liquidations would likely trigger a sharp move higher, catching short sellers off-guard.
Source: Coinglass
Can Bitcoin reclaim momentum and rally past $120K?
Despite rising bearish sentiment and aggressive short positioning, Bitcoin still benefits from miner inactivity and strong exchange outflows.
As long as BTC holds the $116K–$118K support zone, any squeeze on shorts could reignite bullish momentum and push prices toward $124K–$130K.
The current standoff presents an opportunity for volatility, with sentiment and positioning likely to determine the next breakout direction.