Key Takeaways
Why are public companies piling on BTC?
The safe haven trade, or ‘debasement trade’ that’s lifting gold to new highs, could boost BTC as “digital gold.”
Will the trend rally BTC to $200K?
The $130K was a conservative target that the market was eyeing. But a $180K could be feasible in the long run, too.
Bitcoin [BTC] adoption by public firms recorded a significant surge in Q3.
According to a report by digital asset manager Bitwise, 48 new companies acquired BTC, translating to a 38.7% change on a quarter-to-quarter basis (QoQ).
Now, a total of 172 firms are holders, and they bought 176,762 BTC in Q3 alone, led by Strategy’s 40K BTC.
Source: Bitwise
The overall BTC held by public firms has hit 1.02 million BTC, worth over $117 billion. However, ETFs surpassed the public firms’ growth.
ETFs surpass public firms in adoption
Over the same period, BTC ETFs jumped from 1.405 million BTC to 1.533 million BTC, suggesting nearly 130K BTC was accumulated by these entities, about double the pace of growth of the public firms.
Source: Bitcoin Treasuries
Overall, the aggressive demand for BTC by institutions and retail could boost BTC value in the long run. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, the adoption trend meant everyone wants BTC.
“People want to own Bitcoin. Companies do too.”
With the “debasement trade” still strong as gold rips higher, BTC could also rally amid the growing demand for inflation hedge assets, noted Ki Young Ju, founder of analytics firm CryptoQuant.
“Gold keeps hitting new ATHs. BTC-Gold correlation is high; the digital gold narrative still alive. Inflation hedge demand isn’t dead yet.”
Source: CryptoQuant
How high can BTC go?
Several firms have placed year-end targets of $130K-$200K by year-end or early 2026, especially if President Donald Trump replaces Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a dovish nominee.
As of writing, however, Polymarket was pricing only 5% chance that BTC would hit $200K.
But the $130K looked more favorable at a 53% chance. A similar level was marked out by the MVRV Pricing Bands, which successfully captured this cycle’s local tops since 2024.
Source: Glassnode
The upper bands aligned with $132K and $176K, suggesting the $130K-$180K per BTC price range appeared more probable if the rally extends amid corporate adoption.
However, the overall value of some firms, like Metaplanet, has dropped below their BTC holdings (mNAV), underscoring the current bearish sentiment. This could derail accumulation plans for some of these firms.