The Open Network’s revival story is compelling, but its tight embrace with the messaging app Telegram is what’s truly turning heads. With an ecosystem that’s suddenly exploding and a unique way of pulling in users, everyone wants to know if its coin, TON, has a real shot at the $10-mark.
Given that the TON Foundation has now partnered with Kingsway Capital to launch a $400M treasury company, $10 might be somewhat realistic if a few conditions are met.
Getting to a $10 price tag is no small feat though. With about 2.47 billion tokens out there, that would mean a market cap of nearly $25 billion. A number that big would shove Toncoin right into the big leagues, making it a direct rival to names like Dogecoin and Cardano.
The network’s fully diluted value would balloon past $51 billion. To pull that off, the project needs more than just social media buzz. It needs a perfect storm of people actually using it, solid tech, smart tokenomics, and a market that’s willing to play along.
On the up? Here’s why…
The strongest argument for TON’s rise is its exclusive connection to Telegram’s 950 million users. This partnership is a backdoor into Web3 for the average person, stripping away the usual complexity. The built-in TON Wallet is central to this, letting people zip crypto back and forth as easily as sending a sticker.
This feature has been a huge hit, causing network activity to skyrocket in 2024. Much of this frenzy comes from viral “tap-to-earn” games like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat, which turned out to be a brilliant, if gimmicky, way to get tens of millions of people into the TON world.
This flood of new users is building a real economy on the chain. Total value locked (TVL) in TON’s financial apps, for instance, went from a paltry $25 million in February 2024 to a peak near $740 million by July. The network is now chewing through millions of transactions every day, showing off its scalable design.
Bringing Tether (USDT) onto the TON blockchain was another major boost, as its supply has swelled and now fuels a huge chunk of the trading on decentralized exchanges like STON.fi and DeDust.io.
Telegram’s decision to share 50% of its ad revenue with channel owners, paid out only in Toncoin, creates a powerful cycle. Creators get paid in TON, encouraging them to hold or use the token. This generates constant demand and activity on the blockchain. The TON Foundation also plans to keep upgrading, with projects like a Layer 2 network for cheaper payments and bridges to other big chains like Bitcoin.
This, along with growing trust from big-name investors and custody services, makes a strong case for a sustained hike.
A risky road ahead…
Still, the road to $10 is full of potholes. The biggest worry is the global economy. High-interest rates make safe, boring investments look a lot better than speculating on crypto. If a recession hits or politics get messy, investors could pull their money out of risky assets like TON in a hurry.
The project also carries its own baggage. The SEC’s takedown of Telegram’s original token plan still casts a long shadow. Even though TON is technically a separate group now, its deep links to Telegram could draw unwanted fire from regulators, especially in places like the U.S.
There are also questions about how decentralized TON really is. For all the talk, its growth is still chained to a single, centralized app—Telegram. That ties its success directly to another company’s fate.
Also, TON is wading into a brutal market. It has to fight not only the giant Ethereum but also fast, cheap alternatives like Solana and Aptos that are all chasing the same users.
A look at the price performance
Looking at the price chart, TON has been on a rollercoaster, hitting a peak of about $8.28 in June 2024 before pulling back. At the time of writing though, the altcoin was far from trading at those levels.
Despite climbing by over 28% in less than a month, the altcoin is far from its highs of December 2024, let alone the highs from June 2024. To its credit though, technical indicators like the Moving Average and the RSI were both bullish in the short term.
Source: TON/USD, Tradingview
Bulls are hoping the chart forms a pattern that signals another leg up, but they need to breach the $7-level to keep the dream alive. The real test will be breaking past the recent highs and the 200-day average for good. Some analysts are calling for a $10 run as soon as 2025, while more cautious voices think it’s a goal for the end of the decade.
So, is $10 possible? It’s a massive ask, but not completely out of the question. Toncoin has an ace up its sleeve that no other blockchain can claim – a direct pipeline to almost a billion potential users through Telegram. If even a tiny slice of that audience becomes truly active on the network, the growth could be staggering.
However, the risks are just as real. A souring global economy could kill the momentum for all of crypto. On top of that, TON has to navigate a minefield of regulations, prove it can become truly independent, and show that its tap-to-earn games can create lasting value, not just a temporary fad.
In the end, Toncoin’s shot at $10 depends on whether its unparalleled user pipeline is strong enough to withstand the market’s turbulence and the project’s own internal challenges.