- High supply limits XRP price predictions above $3.
- Resistance at $2.35 threatens XRP’s short-term rally.
- ETF approval odds boost XRP’s long-term potential.
In 2025, the price forecasts of XRP are estimated to be more than 3 dollars based on technical patterns and intrinsic drivers On shorter time frames, price action is forming a descending triangle, which suggests that the price may surge to $3.35, a 50% increase from current levels at $2.20, according to experts. Positive news drives such optimism, as investors expect a 95% chance of XRP ETF approval in October 2025 and anticipate a potential resolution to SEC lawsuits. These predictions do not, however, take into account one of the most important factors, that is, the circulating supply and market cap limitations of XRP.
Source – CMC
One major hurdle is the current quantity of XRP, which stands at 59 billion coins. $3 would see the market cap exceeding $165 billion, an amount that requires huge capital inflows. Market experts consider extreme forecasts of $30 or more, suggesting a market cap of over 1.6 trillion, as unrealistic because such calculations do not take into consideration liquidity constraints and macroeconomic conditions
Technical Risks Threaten XRP’s Upward Momentum
Source: TradingView
XRP has difficulties overcoming the resistance at the level of 2.35, which indicates the lack of demand at the higher price levels. Exponential moving average 20-day at 2.17 is a central support. A good recovery at this point can take prices as high as 2.65, but failure to do so can result in XRP falling to 1.96 or even lower.
Source: TradingView
The descending triangle pattern signals a bearish trend, suggesting the price might drop to $1 if it fails to hold the support around 2.10.
Source – Polymarket
A rally may be led by positive fundamentals, such as the institutional partners Ripple has entered into with companies such as Santander, and rumors of ETF approvals. According to Bloomberg analysts, there is a 95 percent probability that the SEC will approve XRP ETFs, while Polymarket predicts an 87% chance, which can bring institutional funds. However, indicators of the technical nature, such as RSI at close to neutral and falling wallet creation, indicate a loss of momentum. Santander Ripple Partnership
The latest market action indicates that XRP is trading in a range of between 2.15 and 2.40, with macroeconomic conditions such as interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflicts being major drivers. The hopeful optimism has been brought about by a 60-day suspension of SEC appeals as announced on June 17, 2025, but the delay in the application of Franklin Templeton to list an XRP ETF shows that there are still regulatory challenges.
High transaction throughput and low transaction fees (an average of 0.0002 dollars per transaction) of the XRP Ledger support its applicability. This makes it suitable for cross-border payments. Ripple’s application for a U.S. banking license further boosts its long-term prospects. These fundamentals might, however, not be enough to cross short-term technical issues or market saturation. XRP Ledger Overview
The price dynamics of XRP signify cautious optimism, as higher lows are observed, which means that a developing uptrend is being formed. However, selling at $2.23 is a red flag. Declining on-chain performance, such as an 80 percent decline in wallet creation since January, is another. Investors are cautious as they juggle between ETF frenzy and the danger of a correction.
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