After an incredible recent rally, XRP’s price has risen above $2.95, registering gains of almost 50% in the last few weeks. A crucial on-chain metric, however, is raising a red flag underneath: the network’s active addresses have dropped by more than 50% from their June peak.
There is a significant discrepancy between price and user activity. Since active addresses represent actual usage and organic liquidity rather than speculative froth, they are frequently an early indicator of sustainable demand. XRP’s price action has a history of violently reversing when it separates from address activity for extended periods of time. From a technical standpoint, the chart is an example of an overstretched breakout.
Now pushing into a parabolic advance, the daily candles have broken cleanly above all of the major moving averages — most notably the 200-day MA near $2.14. Strong momentum has been confirmed by the expanding volume. Deep in overbought territory, the RSI is well above 84.
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There is a significantly greater chance of a mean reversion spike when the price moves into these zones without a corresponding increase in on-chain engagement. There may be a classic liquidity vacuum scenario if active addresses do not recover in the next few days. Cascade liquidations can be triggered by even slight selling pressure if there are no new participants to absorb profit-taking.
In light of XRP’s contentious community and frequently erratic regulatory narratives, this disconnect between speculation and utility may serve as the impetus for an abrupt reversal. On the other hand, the address drop might be a transient phenomenon — possibly a lull as traders move money between exchanges. The structural integrity of this rally is in doubt, though, unless there is proof of a resurgence in user activity.