One of the most significant on-chain changes of the month was recently brought about by XRP’s market activity. From its recent baseline to well over 1.5 billion XRP transferred between accounts, XRP Ledger’s payment volume increased by more than 4.5x in a single day. When viewed in context, this appears to be more a reflection of increased network usage than a directional signal despite initially appearing to be the type of spike that precedes a significant price move.
In terms of price, XRP is still trapped in a clear declining channel, moving downward from the $2.70-$2.80 range to the mid-$2 area. Since October, buyers have failed to break the upper trend line, and each bounce has been weaker than the previous one. In the meantime, exchange volume has not increased enough to reverse momentum. In essence, the asset is moving in a controlled downward trend.
However, the on-chain data adds complexity to that picture. In addition to the increase in payment volume, there are about 200,000 active accounts, which is comparatively steady for XRP. Despite the chart appearing heavy, this makes it very evident that neither the network nor its users have vanished. Rather, while price sentiment remains subdued, XRP is discreetly preserving a baseline of utility.
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This creates a divided environment for investors. The chart is still structurally bearish in the near future. EMAs are rolled over, the descending channel remains intact and sellers continue to control the rebounds. If nothing changes, XRP could simply retest the channel’s lower bound. The on-chain image, however, indicates that the foundation beneath the price is more robust than the candles suggest.
Resilience — the kind of resilience that enables an asset to stage recoveries once broader market pressure eases — is usually indicated by high payment throughput and consistent active user counts. Moving forward, traders need to be aware of two things.
The first real bullish signal since early autumn would be a break above the descending channel. Persistently high payment volume would demonstrate that yesterday’s increase was not merely an isolated incident.