Zcash has staged a short-term rebound, but the bigger picture remains sketchy. After hitting a local low on January 10, the Zcash price bounced roughly 16%. That bounce came even as the token remains down over 20% on the week and slipped again in the past 24 hours. Under the surface, on-chain data shows aggressive whale accumulation.
At the same time, trend signals, exchange flows, and smart-money behavior still indicate risk. This sets up a clear conflict: is this rebound the start of a recovery, or just a pause before another leg lower?
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Bullish Divergence and Whale Accumulation Explain the Rebound
The rebound did not come out of nowhere. Between December 6 and January 10, Zcash printed a hidden bullish RSI divergence. The Zcash price formed a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling strength, formed a lower low. This pattern often signals that selling pressure is weakening before the price reacts.
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Whale behavior aligned with that signal. Over the past seven days, Zcash’s largest holders stepped in aggressively. Mega whale wallets increased their holdings by 39.07%, taking their combined balance to 45,103 ZEC.
Smaller whale wallets also added, rising 17.63% to 10,405 ZEC. Total whale buying, therefore, stands at $5.7 million over the past 7 days.
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Public-figure wallets climbed nearly 20% in the same period. This steady accumulation explains why the RSI divergence pushed the price to the upside and why Zcash managed to bounce from its January low on January 10.
EMA Risk Grows as Spot Outflows Fade
However, the rebound is running into structural resistance. Zcash’s price is now trading below key exponential moving averages (EMAs). An EMA gives more weight to recent prices and helps identify trend direction. The 20-day EMA is drifting toward a bearish crossover below the 50-day EMA, a setup that often caps rebounds and restarts downtrends. These EMA levels are also acting as overhead resistance.
Spot exchange flows reinforce this risk. While Zcash still shows net exchange outflows, meaning coins are leaving exchanges rather than entering to sell, the intensity has dropped sharply. On January 7, net outflows peaked near $35.6 million.
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They have since fallen to about $10.7 million, a decline of roughly $25 million, or nearly 70%. This suggests that while whales continue to accumulate, some possible retail selling or hesitation might be creeping back in as sentiment remains fragile.
That said, this setup is not new. In late December, a similar EMA crossover risk emerged. At the time, sustained whale buying caused the 20-day EMA to move away from the 50-day EMA instead of crossing below it. That divergence led to a 38.36% Zcash rally. The market is now watching whether current whale accumulation can again overpower fading retail demand and prevent the bearish crossover from completing.
Smart Money Still Warns, With The $300 Zcash Price Risk In Play
The final signal comes from the Smart Money Index (SMI). This indicator tracks how informed traders position themselves relative to retail behavior. When it stays below its signal line, it often signals caution and downside risk. Zcash’s Smart Money Index remains well below that line.
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The last time it dropped this sharply, between late November and early December, the ZEC price fell over 50%. The SMI line seems to have flattened for now, as there is one nuance worth noting.
On the derivatives side, smart money positioning has started increasing net longs over the past 24 hours. This suggests some traders (on the derivatives side) are betting on a rebound. But that bet remains conditional.
For a recovery, Zcash must reclaim $408 and then push above $459 and $483. Until that happens, the EMA structure and weak outflows keep downside risk alive. A clean break below $361 would reopen the path toward $300.
Zcash’s rebound is real, and whale buying explains it. But structure still rules. Until trend signals flip, whale accumulation and improving smart money positioning alone may not be enough to kill the $300 risk.