Altcoins have climbed back above key technical levels on Binance, with 70% of assets now trading above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since October 2025. The total altcoin market capitalization, measured by the Total3 metric excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has moved back above $800 billion—a level not reached in more than 8 months.
Despite these price recoveries, a separate measure of altcoin strength is sending a different signal. Blockchaincenter's Altcoin Season Index fell to 41 on September 20, sitting 34 points below the historical threshold of 75 that confirms altcoin season conditions.
Divergence Between Price and Relative Performance
The Altcoin Season Index measures the percentage of the top 50 altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day period. With the index at 41, fewer than half of those assets have beaten Bitcoin during that timeframe. The index had peaked near 67 in August before weakening.
Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.34% on September 20, up 0.5% over the previous three days, further reflecting altcoins' recovery against the dollar rather than against Bitcoin itself.
Early Technical Signals
The ETH/BTC ratio recently tested a downtrend in place since 2021 and has moved near 0.03238. While this breakout represents an early signal of potential altcoin rotation, the ratio remains well below its 2021 peak.
For a confirmed altcoin season, altcoins would need to continue outperforming Bitcoin across the Altcoin Season Index's 90-day measurement period. Analysts note that market conditions capable of producing such improvements can shift quickly, warranting caution despite recent technical strength.
