The altcoin market capitalization has dropped from $1.85 trillion to $1.05 trillion in just one month, according to AMBCrypto. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index stood at 44, a reading that indicates the market remains in a Bitcoin season.
Index struggles to sustain highs
The Altcoin Season Index has repeatedly attempted to move higher but has struggled to sustain readings above 75, based on Coinglass data. This persistent weakness has raised questions about whether an altcoin season is now off the radar in 2026.
Bitcoin outpaces altcoins
Alphractal analysis shows that around August to October 2026, both Bitcoin’s 60-day return and the median altcoin’s return climbed to roughly +50-60%, moving in sync. By November, both lines had dropped back to roughly 0%, with the median altcoin sitting slightly below Bitcoin.
The median altcoin versus Bitcoin chart shows the gap directly at -5.91%. A green spike in October of about +25% has fully reversed into red, meaning the median altcoin now trails Bitcoin by about 6% over sixty days. This pattern fits earlier cycles where altcoin outperformance came in short bursts that faded quickly. Currently, altcoins are weaker than Bitcoin but not in deep capitulation.
João Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, argued: “Altcoins signal Bitcoin tops with a high degree of probability!”
Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of ITC, added that “Q4 has arrived,” but the price chart he attached suggested a broad red day, with Bitcoin at about $74,875 (-1.19%) while altcoins were falling harder.
Wealthmanager also called the current market situation a “full capitulation” phase with about $380 billion more selling than buying, claiming it is seven times worse than 2022’s bottom.
Bitcoin dominance remains above 60%
Bitcoin dominance is stable above 60% at press time, and altcoins not gaining share fits the weak Altcoin Season Index very well, according to Trading View data.
ETF flows on 6th November show net outflows almost everywhere. BTC ETFs lost $1.28 billion, and Ethereum ETFs recorded $365.28 million in outflows, the second-largest. Hyperliquid was hit by $15.62 million in outflows, Solana recorded $26.25 million, Avalanche recorded $1.27 million, Chainlink saw $1.06 million, and XRP, Litecoin, and Binance each recorded outflows under $1 million.
Only Hedera recorded an inflow of $3.01 million. In other words, institutional money is leaving both Bitcoin and altcoins, not rotating from one to the other. This followed a recent report by AMBCrypto, which already indicated at the end of October that altcoin speculation has slowed down.
Final summary
- The Altcoin Season Index repeatedly attempted to move higher but struggled to sustain above 75.
- Altcoin ETFs, along with Bitcoin ETFs, saw outflows on the 6th of November.
