Profit-taking among recent altcoin holders had largely given way to loss-taking by the end of October, according to Glassnode, while a separate market index showed fewer than half of eligible major coins beating Bitcoin over 90 days.
In its Nov. 4 report, the on-chain analytics firm said short-term holders were spending at a profit in about 12% of its more than 300 tracked tokens by end-October, down from about 80% in late September.
Separately, BlockchainCenter's Nov. 4 snapshot put its 90-day Altcoin Season Index at 41, meaning fewer than half of its eligible major coins had outperformed Bitcoin over that window.
How the two measures work
Glassnode uses the short-term-holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) to gauge whether those holders sell at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1 indicates profitable spending, while a reading below 1 indicates loss-making spending. By end-October, the firm said, typical tracked tokens' short-term holders were selling at a small loss.
The 12% figure counts tokens whose short-term holders sold at a profit. Loss realization means sellers accepted prices below their acquisition cost. On its own, that cannot determine whether selling pressure is nearing exhaustion or whether continued weakness lies ahead.
The shift follows a different backdrop in September, a month that showed a spot-led rotation into altcoins. The current profitability snapshot captures a subsequent period in which recent holders were accepting losses.
Breadth sits in the neutral band
BlockchainCenter tracks market breadth through its Altcoin Season Index, comparing the performance of its eligible top-50 coins with Bitcoin over 90 days. The site calls it altcoin season when 75% of that universe outperforms Bitcoin; the Nov. 4 reading of 41 sits inside its neutral band.
A token can gain in dollar terms and still trail Bitcoin if Bitcoin rises faster. Similarly, loss-making spending among recent holders can coexist with a stronger relative return measured over a longer window.
Different universes, different windows
Glassnode's more-than-300-token spending measure and BlockchainCenter's top-50 performance test cannot be combined into a single percentage or read as a change in one shared group. The late-September and end-October profitability observations also precede the Nov. 4 breadth snapshot.
Together, they highlight the distinction between a reset in holders' profits and broader market leadership.
What a more convincing recovery would require
A broader recovery would be more consistent with sustained improvement in spending profitability alongside an expanding share of coins beating Bitcoin. Those developments would address both recent sellers' realized outcomes and participation in relative gains.
Neither measure directly establishes fresh altcoin demand, so a higher profitability reading alone would leave that part of the recovery case unresolved. The 90-day index also looks backward, testing performance over a window.
Glassnode's more constructive altcoin outlook is conditional on Bitcoin holding support during its retest. Sustained gains in spending profitability and a broader group of altcoins beating Bitcoin would strengthen the recovery case, while direct evidence of buyers absorbing the selling would address the demand question these indicators leave open.
