A handful of altcoins have posted notable gains recently, but analyst Dennis Liu contends that a genuine altcoin season has not yet begun. According to Liu, who posts on X as VirtualBacon, the average altcoin has gained only about 10% more than Bitcoin since the cryptocurrency's recent bottom—far short of the broad outperformance typical of previous alt seasons.
Liu's assessment is based on the Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, which measures the market value of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin relative to BTC. He described the chart as "very flat," indicating limited altcoin momentum overall.
Isolated Gains Mask Broader Weakness
While some tokens have performed strongly, Liu stressed these are exceptions rather than signals of market-wide rotation. Zcash has rallied significantly since the start of the year. Quant surged from $59 to $370 before settling near $255. Venice has also outperformed recently. However, major altcoins including XRP, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB have either underperformed Bitcoin or barely kept pace with it.
"That's why I say altcoins are actually still very cheap. And we are not confirming a full-on alt season type of scenario yet," Liu explained, adding that the market is "just barely getting started."
Bitcoin Consolidation and Market Snapshot
Bitcoin has remained largely range-bound, rejected at $87,000 on Monday and bouncing off $85,000, trading between $85,000 and $86,000 with a market cap of $1.72 trillion and a 58% share of total crypto market value. Major altcoins have shown mixed performance over 24 hours, with Ethereum holding above $2,700 and XRP at $1.50. BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink declined slightly, while FIL and ZRO gained 8% and 10% respectively.
Trading Approach Over Broad Signals
Liu cautioned traders against waiting for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high before considering altcoins. He noted that this strategy worked in 2017 and late 2020 but failed in 2024, when Bitcoin reached new highs while many altcoins continued losing ground against it. His preferred approach is to trade individual altcoin rallies rather than wait for a broader market confirmation.
