A new analysis from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) has identified 152 wallets on Polymarket International that appear to have traded on classified US military information. These accounts collectively generated $8 million in profits and achieved a 97.2% success rate on long-shot wagers.
Researchers dubbed these accounts “Orca” wallets due to their focused and predatory betting strategies. The analysis defined qualifying bets as wagers of at least $2,500 placed on outcomes carrying a 35% probability or lower.
Unusual Success and Copycat Trading
Published on August 20, the ACDC research reviewed settled Polymarket markets through May 5, 2026, across military and defense betting categories. The findings revealed that dozens of the 152 Orca wallets had not been previously flagged, allowing them to operate under the radar while consistently winning unlikely bets.
The public nature of blockchain technology also exposed a secondary risk involving copycat trading. ACDC discovered instances where other participants monitored on-chain activity to tail these positions. Specifically, before Iran-related military strikes in 2025, a bot wagered $200,000 and a whale placed $100,000 after apparently tracking Orca wallet positions before the events became public knowledge.
Precedent and Platform Response
The findings follow a prior case in April 2026, when US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged after making $400,000 in profits by trading on classified information accessed via his military role. Records show Van Dyke is not included among the 152 Orca wallets identified in the ACDC report.
Polymarket stated that it remains committed to monitoring suspicious accounts and working with authorities, though the organization declined to comment on the specific details of the ACDC report.
To address these issues, ACDC has recommended that the platform implement identity verification procedures for traders and withhold payouts on trades flagged as dubious.
