Analyst ChartNerd argues that XRP’s strongest catch‑up rallies against Bitcoin have historically begun after the XRP/BTC pair returned to a specific demand zone on the chart, rather than simply following Bitcoin’s price moves.
Historical pattern
By overlaying the monthly XRP/BTC chart on the XRP/USD chart, ChartNerd identified a green demand zone at the bottom of the pair’s range. He cites several periods where XRP’s relative strength followed a return to this zone:
- April‑July 2014, after XRP/USD formed a bottom and later led into the 2017‑2018 rally.
- October 2020 and January 2021, when XRP established a low before a subsequent period of relative strength.
- April‑October 2024, preceding a peak in July 2025 that reached $3.65.
In each case, the rally began after the pair moved back into the identified demand area.
Current market context
At the time of writing, CoinGecko reported XRP trading around $1.25, roughly unchanged from the previous day, with a near 2% decline over seven days and an almost 16% drop over one month. Over the past year, XRP has lost about 50% of its value and is trading approximately 65% below its all‑time high.
Despite the price decline, spot ETFs linked to XRP attracted just under $19 million in inflows, marking the seventh consecutive month of positive flows, though this amount is far below the $121 million and $159 million recorded in September and August.
Analyst outlook
ChartNerd cautions that if the broader market is emerging from a bearish phase, capital may first rotate into Bitcoin, with XRP’s strongest inflows typically arriving later in Bitcoin’s cycle. Consequently, XRP may need to experience another period of weakness against Bitcoin before a meaningful rally can occur.
