Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and co-founder of crypto investment firm Maelstrom, told CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore that the global economy is "wasting multi-trillion dollars" on AI data centers. He predicts this overbuilding will eventually lead to a crash, government bailout, and a subsequent shift of capital toward Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Hayes pointed to historical precedent across major technological rollouts, stating that infrastructure overbuilding consistently occurs, followed by market crashes and government intervention. He cited the 2008 financial crisis as an example, arguing that crypto assets are now positioned to absorb excess liquidity from future bailouts.
Hayes identified SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic as major end users driving compute demand, noting that none of these companies currently generates profit. Anthropic's recent prospectus showed 2025 revenue of $4.6 billion against net losses near $42 billion, with compute and infrastructure costs totaling $7.33 billion—more than half of total operating expenses of $12.65 billion.
According to Hayes, infrastructure providers will demand payment for committed compute capacity once under-construction data centers come online, an event he expects in late 2027 or 2028. He connected this timeline to over $1 trillion in investment-grade debt backed by compute demand from major AI builders, suggesting a downgrade could force insurers to seek capital, prompting government intervention.
Hayes left room for an alternative scenario, acknowledging that if AI becomes sufficiently profitable within the next 12 months, companies could achieve sustained profitability. He noted that some suppliers, including Nvidia, already generate revenue from these investments.
