Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO, has issued a year-end 2026 outlook predicting Ethereum will reach $10,000, based on expectations of increased US dollar liquidity stemming from Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion and Treasury bond buybacks.
Hayes's forecast rests on the assumption that the EURJPY currency pair will decline from around 185 to 140 or lower by mid-2027. The US Treasury announced a $12.5 billion debt buyback, part of a plan to repurchase bonds using a $1 trillion cash cushion. Hayes indicated that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intends to sell Euros and buy Yen, while the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, actions that would increase dollar liquidity.
Ethereum is currently trading at $2,415, rebounding from a 24-hour low of $2,357, with trading volume slightly decreased over the same period.
Hayes also predicted substantial rallies in altcoins associated with Ethereum infrastructure. He forecasted Ethena (ENA) reaching $0.50 and Ether.fi (ETHFI) reaching $2. ENA is currently trading around $0.153 after a 70% gain over one month, while ETHFI trades near $0.57 following a 90% rally over three months. Hayes identified potential three-fold gains if his forecasts materialize.
Ethena recently launched Ethena Pay, a neobanking platform built on Avalanche that enables users to save, spend, transfer, and earn with USDe across 48 countries.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket are pricing roughly 25% odds of Ethereum reaching $2,000 during September, with 71% odds favoring a move to $2,500 this month.
