Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the now-shuttering cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, believes Bitcoin has the structural factors to reach $1 million by 2030. He cited the collapse of the AI bubble, substantial money printing, and potential U.S. yield curve control as contributing factors to such a price trajectory.
Speaking on the Trade Secrets podcast, Hayes stated that $58,000 likely represented a Bitcoin bottom and predicted prices would "grind higher" in what he called a "hate fuck rally."
His outlook contrasts with competing analysis from 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen, who argued on the same program that reaching $1 million by 2030 was "mathematically impossible," given the magnitude of capital inflows that would be required relative to Bitcoin's historical adoption patterns.
Ethereum Over Hyperliquid
Despite his Bitcoin optimism, Hayes stated his "number one pick" is currently Ethereum. He views the asset as offering superior risk-reward compared to Hyperliquid, projecting potential gains of 3x to 5x "pretty quickly."
Hayes noted that Ethereum remains the only major cryptocurrency asset that has not exceeded its 2021 all-time high and highlighted its role as the base layer for decentralized finance. He suggested the asset was overdue for a price recovery after being "beaten down and so forgotten."
Hayes expressed diminished enthusiasm for Hyperliquid, stating that widespread awareness of the platform reduced its asymmetric upside potential. He suggested better risk-reward opportunities exist in alternative cryptocurrency investments.
BitMEX Shutdown and Political Commentary
Hayes stated that BitMEX's decision to shut down on September 23 was conducted "on our own terms" rather than due to external pressure or security breach. He characterized the exchange closure as the "best way" to exit the business.
He also commented that cryptocurrency exchange operation has become economically unfeasible for all but the largest competitors, citing the substantial costs required for security and infrastructure maintenance.
Regarding political influence on crypto markets, Hayes stated that Trump administration statements and actions were "irrelevant" to Bitcoin pricing. He emphasized that monetary authorities, Treasury policy, and Federal Reserve decisions held greater significance for asset valuations than political rhetoric.
