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Base USDC Transfer Volume Does Not Indicate Merchant Adoption, Analysis Shows

While USDC on Base ranks among the largest stablecoin routes by on-chain transfer value, data from payment processor NOWPayments reveals that USDT on Tron, BNB Chain, and Ethereum dominate merchant payments, accounting for 86% of stablecoin pay-in value.
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Base USDC Transfer Volume Does Not Indicate Merchant Adoption, Analysis Shows

USDC on Base ranks among the largest stablecoin routes by on-chain transfer value but trails USDT networks in merchant payments processed by NOWPayments, according to a Glassnode report published November 10. The analysis highlights a disconnect between on-chain transfer activity and actual merchant adoption.

From September 2025 to September 2026, USDT on Tron, BNB Chain, and Ethereum together accounted for 86% of stablecoin pay-in value at NOWPayments. The three leading routes—USDC on Base, USDC on Ethereum, and USDT on Tron—represented 54% of the processor's stablecoin pay-in value.

Transfer Volume Does Not Equal Merchant Adoption

The data demonstrates that a blockchain route's share of transfers does not establish its share of merchant payments. USDT on Tron and BNB Chain brings in approximately 75% of NOWPayments stablecoin pay-in value, while those routes carry only 14% of on-chain USDT and USDC value during the comparison period.

Glassnode's analysis covers trading, e-commerce, software-as-a-service, and iGaming merchants on NOWPayments. The research does not measure transaction counts, customer numbers, retail purchases, or global merchant market share. Pay-in value measures money flow but cannot establish how many retail purchases occurred or whether a small number of large customers dominates the results.

Factors Affecting Payment Routing

NOWPayments' merchant setup instructions allow businesses to choose which customer currencies they accept through Coin settings, meaning merchant configuration could influence routing alongside customer demand. Additionally, NOWPayments announced an offer on October 30, 2025, providing new users two months without network fees on USDT-on-Tron deposits. The timing makes this promotion relevant to interpreting the processor's payment mix, though it does not establish that the offer produced Tron's observed market share.

Understanding Base USDC Activity

An August 11 analysis by Talos and Coin Metrics attributed 69% of Base USDC raw transfer volume to decentralized-exchange liquidity provision and 23% to flash loans, with these tagged categories described as lower-bound estimates. The analysis left room for other activity including payments, bridging, treasury movements, and settlement. That historical analysis uses a different measurement period and methodology than the Glassnode merchant comparison and cannot explain NOWPayments' particular payment mix or turn transfer activity into evidence of merchant adoption or lost sales.

Determining merchant preference requires comparable data across multiple processors and geographies. One payment processor's experience cannot serve as a proxy for global assessment of Base or other blockchain networks.

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