Wall Street research company Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its latest downturn, reclaim its previous highs, and reach $125,000 by late 2026 under both its base and bull cases. The analysis was detailed in a research report published on Wednesday.
According to Bernstein, Bitcoin gained 28% over a 10-day period after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak. The analysts noted that this rebound could signal the end of the current bear cycle. Greater participation from institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers provided increased downside support during the latest cycle, resulting in a smaller drawdown compared to the 75% to 90% declines seen in previous cycles.
Long-Term Cycle Projections
Under Bernstein's base case, Bitcoin is projected to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. The firm's bull case places Bitcoin at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. Both scenarios maintain a longer-term target of approximately $1 million by 2033.
The forecasting model relies on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles linked to the halving event. Bernstein divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation. Price potential is estimated by comparing Bitcoin against the marginal cost of production for the least efficient miners.
Outlook for Corporate Holders
The report also evaluated the impact of a market recovery on Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, which holds 840,447 BTC, representing about 4% of the maximum supply. Bernstein maintained an "Outperform" rating on Strategy while lowering its price target for MSTR from $450 to $350, citing accelerated equity dilution and an updated Bitcoin cycle outlook.
Bernstein indicated that continued Bitcoin strength and a recovery in Strategy's preferred stock could enable the company to resume large-scale Bitcoin purchases after selling approximately 7,000 BTC in 2026. However, separate analysis from Regime Intelligence noted potential risks related to capital-market access and annual funding obligations.
