Bernstein has significantly raised its forecast for prediction market growth, now projecting the industry will handle $10 trillion annually by 2035—10 times its original 2030 prediction of $1 trillion.
The revised projection reflects rapid recent expansion. Bernstein expects volumes to compound at roughly 70% per year through 2035. Industry-wide trading grew from approximately $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026, with the market expected to process $410 billion in 2026.
Market Composition Shift
The composition of prediction markets is undergoing significant change. Sports contracts, which represented 61% of trading volume in 2025, are expected to decline to 38% by 2035. Contracts tied to crypto, stocks, and commodities are projected to grow from 12% to 49%, becoming the largest category.
Bernstein analysts note that new product categories are emerging, including KPI markets that allow trading on individual corporate metrics such as production or subscriber growth, and perpetual futures expanding beyond crypto into commodities and single-stock contracts.
Current Market Leaders
Kalshi controls approximately 60% of prediction market volume, up from 35% a year earlier. Crypto trading on Kalshi jumped from under 5% of volume in January to about 20% in August. Commodity trading on the platform grew from less than $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million in 2026.
Regulatory Uncertainties
Bernstein estimates that full U.S. regulatory clarity for sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 or 2028, citing conflicting court rulings over whether these contracts qualify as federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling. Several platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket already process hundreds of billions in volume despite this regulatory ambiguity.
