Popular analyst PlanB dives deep into 7 charts to predict Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2024, hinting at a significant price surge fueled by scarcity and market cycles. Dive in for technical insights and informed speculation!
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst who’s captivated the crypto community with his bold predictions, is back with his 2024 outlook for Bitcoin. This time, he arms himself not with just one, but with seven charts, meticulously dissecting technical indicators, on-chain data, and market cycles to paint a picture of potential price action. Buckle up, because if his analysis holds true, Bitcoin could be in for a wild ride this year.
The Allure of Scarcity: Stock-to-Flow Model Takes Center Stage
PlanB’s anchor for 2024 is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which posits that Bitcoin’s price is primarily driven by its ever-dwindling supply. With the next halving slated for May 2024, cutting the daily issuance of new Bitcoin in half, the S2F model predicts a skyrocketing price of $532,000 by the end of the year. While that might sound like a moonshot, the model has a proven track record, accurately forecasting previous Bitcoin bull runs.
But here’s the twist: PlanB doesn’t expect an immediate jump to $532,000 post-halving. Instead, he anticipates a gradual climb towards the $50-$60,000 range in the four months leading up to the event, followed by a more sustained, “slow pump” towards the $532,000 mark throughout 2025. This aligns with the historical observation that Bitcoin price often lags behind halvings, taking time to fully absorb the impact of reduced supply.
Beyond S2F: A Multi-Chart Approach for a Holistic View
PlanB doesn’t stop at S2F. He delves deeper with the Bitcoin market cycle model, suggesting we’re currently in the accumulation phase, the calm before the storm. Red dots on the chart traditionally mark the entry points for explosive bull runs, with 10x gains not uncommon. While PlanB tempers expectations due to slower adoption, he still predicts a healthy 5x-10x surge, fueled by Bitcoin’s nascent stage in the global financial landscape.
Technical indicators like RSI and moving averages add further weight to the bullish outlook. RSI points towards an uptrend in the coming months, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards the $50-$60,000 range by the halving. Similarly, the 200-week moving average aligns with this prediction, offering technical confirmation of a potential price floor in the mid-40,000s to low-50,000s.
On-chain data paints a similar picture. Realized price, the average cost of all Bitcoins ever purchased, is on the rise again, signaling that most holders are currently in profit and confident about the future. Additionally, nearly 90% of Bitcoins are in profit, a strong indicator of investor sentiment and potential buying pressure.
Trading with Conviction: A Potential Strategy for 2024
PlanB, ever the practical analyst, doesn’t just paint a rosy picture; he proposes a concrete trading strategy. He suggests buying Bitcoin 6 months before the halving (ideally around November 2023) and selling 18 months after (around November 2025). This strategy has historically yielded positive returns, capitalizing on the pre-halving hype and riding the wave of the subsequent bull market.
A Word of Caution: Not Financial Advice, Just Food for Thought
It’s crucial to remember that PlanB’s analysis, while compelling, is not financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and unforeseen events can derail even the most meticulously crafted predictions. Before making any investment decisions, do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and seek professional financial advice if needed.
The Final Takeaway: A Bullish Bias with Nuance
PlanB’s 2024 forecast for Bitcoin paints a picture of significant price appreciation, driven by a confluence of factors: the upcoming halving, favorable market cycles, supportive technical indicators, and bullish on-chain data. While the exact numbers might be up for debate, the overall message is clear: Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strong, and 2024 could be a year of reckoning
Bitcoin 2024: A Bullish Outlook Driven by Data and Scarcity was originally published in The Dark Side on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.