Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, says Bitcoin has a 65% chance of extending its bear market, with the cycle low still potentially ahead. He is monitoring Bitcoin's realized price near $53,000 as a critical threshold before declaring a market bottom.
Bitcoin traded near $78,300 at the time of Cowen's comments, down 1.7% over the previous 24 hours. This price point came after Bitcoin had already rallied approximately 40% from its summer low.
Historical Patterns and Prior Cycles
Cowen noted that the recent rally alone does not confirm a bottom has formed. He pointed to similar or larger bounces that occurred in 2018 and 2022, which were followed by further declines in the fourth quarter of those midterm years.
According to Cowen's analysis, assuming this pattern has broken would repeat a mistake traders made in previous cycles. He emphasized this caution applies regardless of whether his current bearish call ultimately proves incorrect.
Cowen cited Bitcoin's realized price—the network's aggregate cost basis—as a historical marker for cycle lows. Every prior midterm-year bear market bottomed below the current $53,000 level, he said, though the exact timing has varied across cycles.
Watching for Capitulation
Cowen expects headwinds for Bitcoin over approximately the next month and a half. If October passes without a new lower low, he said the odds would begin to shift toward bullish sentiment. He characterized the primary risk as time-based capitulation rather than a specific price target.
Should the pattern break and bears capitulate, Cowen said he would abandon his bearish bias. He expects to adopt a bullish stance again heading into 2027, regardless of how the remainder of this year develops.
Cowen recommended a dollar-cost-averaging approach over attempting to pinpoint the exact market low, noting this does not constitute financial advice.
