Bitcoin and gold, two assets commonly purchased as hedges against monetary stress, are both sitting at the bottom of the 2026 performance table. As of Friday, October 23, bitcoin is down 7.3% year-to-date while gold has fallen 7.5%, according to Creative Planning Chief Market Strategist Charlie Bilello.
Bilello noted on X that both assets finishing a year at the bottom together would be unprecedented, stating, "This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year."
Long-Term Performance Masks Recent Weakness
The pairing is striking given their historical divergence. Since 2011, bitcoin has delivered an annualized return of 120.6% compared to gold's 6.3% annual return over the same period.
Gold's 2026 decline follows an exceptionally strong 2025, when the precious metal surged 63.7%. For bitcoin, the weakness demonstrates that crypto's long-term outperformance does not eliminate the risk of extended drawdowns.
Gold Mining Stocks Show Signs of Extreme Pressure
Pressure in the gold sector extends to mining equities. Roughly 92% of stocks in the GDX gold miners ETF are trading below their 50-day moving average, according to The Kobeissi Letter, with this share having risen 80% in just 21 sessions.
About 90% of GDX constituents are also below their 200-day moving average, the highest proportion in three months. Similar conditions appeared in March and December 2024, after which GDX rallied 21.5% and 15.4%, respectively, over the following month.
Divergent Roles, Unified Weakness
The unusual aspect for investors is not simply that both assets are down, but that they are weakening simultaneously despite serving different portfolio roles. Gold is traditionally treated as a defensive asset, while bitcoin remains often traded as a higher-volatility crypto asset.
Their joint underperformance creates a rare market setup. If either asset begins to recover, investors will be watching whether their typical divergence reappears, or whether 2026 becomes a defining test of the hedge narratives surrounding each.
