Bitcoin and gold have demonstrated unusually strong correlation in recent weeks, with analysts attributing the move to shared investor concerns about currency weakness. The 3-month rolling correlation between the two assets has reached its highest point since 2020, according to Bitwise.
During August, Bitcoin gained 23% while gold advanced from $4,130 to $4,512. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer André Dragosch noted that Bitcoin recorded its largest weekly gain since March 2024—22.4%—in the week following an announcement by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding government bond buybacks. During the same week, gold gained 5% while many crypto stocks declined.
The strengthened correlation reflects investor behavior rather than fundamental market forces. Dragosch attributes the synchronized movement to investors holding both assets due to concerns that fiat currency will weaken amid bond selling pressures.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has outpaced gold in absolute terms. Bitcoin moved from $63,000 in August to $81,000 by early September, causing the XAU/BTC ratio—which measures gold's value relative to Bitcoin—to drop to 0.05496, its lowest level since January.
Bitcoin's price action has shown volatility around key technical levels. The asset reached resistance at $81,363 before declining toward support at $78,726. A report noted that analysts expect Bitcoin could move toward $85,000 if it closes above $80,600, contingent on declining Federal Reserve rate hike odds and lower US bond yields.
However, market sentiment shifted following September jobs data that strengthened the case for Federal Reserve action. The probability of a rate increase at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting rose to 60%, causing Bitcoin to drop toward $78,000 and prompting a 2.4% gain in the XAU/BTC ratio.
Notably, Bitcoin's correlation with equities has declined to its lowest point since 2025, suggesting the asset is increasingly moving independent of traditional stock market movements.
