Bitcoin's price reached $86,771 on Sunday evening, placing it within $650 of Friday's $87,177 peak as the cryptocurrency tests resistance levels entering October. The move followed an intraday low near $85,552, leaving bitcoin around $86,536 by 7:30 p.m. EDT.
October has historically favored bitcoin, with the asset closing higher in 10 of the past 13 Octobers since 2013, producing a median gain of 12.7%. Bitcoin wrapped up September near $83,560 after gaining approximately 6.33% over the previous month. A 12% October advance from that closing level would place the price near $94,000.
ETF Inflows Lose Momentum
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds collected roughly $6.3 billion in net inflows during the third quarter, including approximately $2.7 billion in September. However, provisional flows from September 28 through October 2 totaled about $83 million, compared with $2.39 billion the previous week. Daily ETF trading value also declined from $4.57 billion on September 21 to below $2 billion.
Key Levels and Upcoming Catalysts
A daily close above $87,500 to $88,000 could challenge $90,000 and eventually $95,000 to $96,000. First meaningful support sits at $84,000 to $84,300, with a structural floor at $82,000 to $82,500.
October's calendar includes the Consumer Price Index release on October 14 and the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. Mt. Gox wallets still hold 34,388 BTC worth roughly $2.9 billion ahead of an October 31 creditor deadline, which could introduce a significant supply event if a distribution occurs. Oil price volatility around the Strait of Hormuz also remains relevant to inflation expectations.
