Bitcoin has exited its bear market as an onchain profitability metric has turned positive for the first time in months, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator registered a reading of 0.042 as of August 26, marking the first bullish signal since early October 2025.
The indicator is derived from the P&L Index and measures its distance from a 365-day moving average. It incorporates several onchain profitability metrics including the market value to realized value ratio, net unrealized profit/loss, and the spent output profit ratio. Together, these metrics track Bitcoin investors' realized and unrealized profits and losses.
The bear market cycle reached its extreme low on February 5, when Bitcoin fell to $60,000, with the indicator showing a reading of -1.244. Ki noted that the same composite metric successfully identified the end of Bitcoin's previous bear market in early 2023, suggesting it has proven accurate at confirming macro price trend changes.
However, skepticism persists among market participants about the durability of Bitcoin's recent recovery. Concerns have been raised about insufficient market liquidity to support a sustained price trend change, with multiple liquidity hurdles positioned above spot price. Some traders have identified the August monthly close as a pivotal moment for determining whether the recovery will hold against downward-sloping resistance established since October of last year.
