Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn argued in a report published Monday that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and the asset is now in an accumulation phase. "Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin," Thorn wrote.
Technical Indicators Support the Call
Thorn's analysis centers on several technical developments. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before reclaiming it in September. The week ended October 18 marked its fifth consecutive weekly close above that line. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after 20 weeks or more below it four times. In each case, the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year and eventually regained its prior all-time high.
The halving cycle also supports the recovery thesis. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving, and Thursday was day 916. The latest downturn was also the shallowest on record, with a 53% decline compared with declines of 77% to 93% in past cycles.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Reduced Selling Pressure
For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin's market value never fell below its realized value, the average price at which every coin last moved. The ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10, compared with lows of 0.56, 0.69, and 0.75 in prior cycles.
Short-term holders who purchased during the recovery have an average cost of $74,811 and sit approximately 9% in profit, yet few are cashing out. Long-dormant coins unmoved for five years or more have been sold at about 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
Macroeconomic Backdrop
Thorn cited several macroeconomic factors as supportive for Bitcoin. Federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion, fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, its highest since 2007. The S&P 500 sits less than 1% below a record, while Bitcoin would need to rise 53% to reclaim its high.
Current Market Conditions
Bitcoin traded near $80,000 at the time of reporting, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced mixed flows this week, swinging from inflows to outflows. Recent inflation data revived bets on additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, which can pressure Bitcoin as higher Treasury yields offer alternative returns.
Thorn identified a tripwire for his thesis: a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently $76,540, that isn't regained within a month would signal a reversal. He also noted that Bitcoin has historically demonstrated the ability to reach $125,000.
Galaxy Digital and Thorn disclose that they hold Bitcoin.
