Exchange inflows are cooling, XRP withdrawals are surging, and realized losses are shrinking. Here’s what on-chain data says about a Bitcoin bottom.
XRP left Coinbase at a pace not seen since February. The seven-day net depositing and withdrawing transaction count on Coinbase hit -15,500 on June 18, per CryptoQuant data cited by analyst Amr Taha. That reading fell below April’s -14,200 and February’s -12,300.
Binance was not far behind. Its own seven-day reading dropped to -7,100, a figure close to April levels and notably below where it sat on February 14. Two of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world were moving in the same direction on the same day.
Bybit’s 27,000 Deposit Surge Just Vanished in 11 Days
The sharpest reversal belonged to Bybit. According to Amr Taha, Bybit’s net depositing/withdrawing transaction count ran as high as roughly +27,000 on June 7. By June 18 that number had collapsed to around -200.
Source: CryptoQuant / Amr Taha
Eleven days to erase what took weeks to build. That kind of compression is hard to ignore.
What the data actually measures is the count of transactions, not the XRP value moving. But the cross-exchange direction matters on its own. Withdrawals regaining dominance on Coinbase and Binance, at the same moment Bybit’s deposit wave collapses, is a shift worth tracking. Money leaving exchanges tends to mean self-custody, which historically reads as early accumulation behavior.
Mid-Size Bitcoin Holders Are Quietly Stepping Back From Exchanges
On June 19, mid-size Bitcoin investors sent fewer coins to exchanges across three major platforms simultaneously. Amr Taha flagged the data: Binance recorded roughly 3,500 BTC in inflows from this group, Coinbase came in near 3,000 BTC, and Coinbase Prime dropped to about 1,700 BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant / Amr Taha
That Coinbase Prime number sits close to its April 4 low. Coinbase and Binance inflows have drifted back toward late-February levels. The three platforms declining at once matters more than any single exchange reading would.
Exchange inflows from this cohort usually flag potential selling. When mid-size holders send less BTC to exchanges, that specific source of sell-side pressure fades. It does not confirm buying. But ETH is flashing similar bottom signals in separate on-chain data published the same day, which adds a degree of cross-asset context to the read.
The Sellers Hitting Bitcoin Right Now Are Measurably Weaker
CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV_ published an analysis roughly 21 hours ago asking whether Bitcoin is approaching its final flush before a bottom. The framing matters less than the data behind it.
Source: CryptoQuant / joao_wedson on X
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss currently shows losses near -234K BTC. Earlier in the year, at price levels that look similar, the figure was closer to -400K BTC. The market absorbed roughly 40% more in realized losses the first time around.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta adds more detail. Selling pressure remains present according to MorenoDV_’s analysis on CryptoQuant, but not yet at the extreme downside readings that have historically preceded major capitulation events.
Source: CryptoQuant
What the 1-Year Picture Still Does Not Confirm
The 1-year Net Realized Profit/Loss adds the longer frame. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when the yearly sum moved much deeper into realized loss territory. The metric is currently negative.
Source: CryptoQuant
It has not reached the historical extremes that have previously marked cycle lows. The question MorenoDV_ leaves open is whether Bitcoin stabilizes while realized losses keep shrinking, or whether one more downside wave appears first.
How broader monetary conditions shape the next phase of this cycle is a separate debate. The structural picture around Fed policy and what it means for Bitcoin’s medium-term setup is covered in depth at How Kevin Warsh’s Fed Could Reshape Bitcoin’s Next Bull Market Structure. The on-chain signals and the macro environment do not always tell the same story.
Three datasets. Three exchanges. One direction. Whether that is enough to call a bear market bottom is a different question entirely.