Bitcoin is attracting fresh capital in a pattern associated with bull markets, according to Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju. His assessment on Oct. 21 coincided with approximately $1.07 billion in inflows to U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds over three sessions through that date, adding a separate sign of renewed demand.
Fresh Capital Points to Bull Market Conditions
In a comment on bitcoin capital inflows shared on X, Ju presented a realized-capitalization chart comparing the metric with bitcoin’s price across multiple market cycles. The chart distinguishes periods of rising realized capitalization in green from intervals when the measure was flat or declining in gray.
“Fresh capital is flowing into bitcoin. This only happens in bull markets,” Ju stated.
Earlier green stretches appear around the 2017 rally, the 2020-2021 expansion, and the subsequent advance into 2025. Its latest segment also turns green, supporting his interpretation of renewed inflows.
How Bitcoin’s Capital Signal Is Calculated
Realized capitalization estimates bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing each coin at the price when it last moved on the blockchain. The realized-cap calculation differs from market capitalization, which values every coin at the current market price.
Each transaction spends existing outputs and creates new ones, establishing the blockchain records used in this calculation. As bitcoin transaction inputs and outputs change, transferred coins acquire updated valuations. Rising realized cap is commonly interpreted as fresh investment, although transfers between a holder’s own wallets can also affect the measure.
Holder profitability provides another perspective on market cycles, alongside the capital movements highlighted in Ju’s latest assessment. Cryptoquant’s profitability-based bitcoin cycle indicators featured in a July 14 analysis suggesting the cycle’s peak could still lie ahead. That assessment examined valuation ratios and investor profits through a separate framework.
ETF Flows Add Context to Bitcoin’s Bull Market Signal
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $524.8 million on Oct. 21, extending their inflow streak to three sessions. Those three-day bitcoin ETF inflows totaled approximately $1.07 billion. Blackrock’s IBIT led the day’s additions with $235 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $212.7 million. Grayscale’s GBTC attracted $32.6 million, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded $19.2 million in inflows.
Bitcoin was trading near $81,000 on Oct. 22 after retreating from an Oct. 21 intraday high near $84,739. Approximately $35.5 billion in bitcoin changed hands over the preceding 24 hours.
