Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has fallen from 80 to 60 since late September, according to a new analysis, signaling a slowdown in the market’s upward trend. The index, which combines 10 indicators covering demand, investor profitability, network activity, and liquidity, now sits at a threshold the analyst associates with positive momentum.
Index Decline and Analyst View
Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost highlighted the conditions in an Oct. 21 assessment on X. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $81,345.
“Since late September, the Bull Score Index has fallen from 80 to 60, signaling a slight slowdown in the trend,” the analyst stated.
The analyst noted that as long as the index stays above 60, the overall momentum remains positive. The earlier increase from 30 to 80 in August reflected eight components turning bullish, accompanying a price recovery with spot and futures demand rising together for the first time since early October 2025.
Liquidity and Demand Constraints
Short-term holders (STHs), commonly defined as those holding coins for fewer than 155 days, were identified as a weak point in terms of profitability. The analyst pointed to three main constraints:
- Lack of incoming liquidity
- Growth in bitcoin demand
- Lack of sustained profitability among STHs in particular
Buying activity earlier in the recovery varied across wallet sizes. Wallets holding at least 100 BTC added approximately 60,000 bitcoin during August, while wallets with between 1 and 100 BTC sold roughly 33,000 BTC, and those below 1 BTC shed about 14,000 BTC.
An Oct. 13 analysis by Cryptoquant placed the Bull Score Index at 80 after a September peak of 90, describing an early bull market in which large investors typically establish positions before retail demand arrives later in the uptrend.
Holder Profitability and Market Structure
Investor profitability also features in broader assessments of how BTC’s market structure is changing as institutional ownership expands. In September, Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju linked moderating market extremes to a larger capital base, citing rising realized capitalization as a signal of fresh capital entering the market.
Sustained price trends, liquidity, and investor participation help characterize bull and bear market dynamics. Darkfost’s latest comments focus on the immediate improvements needed to support another advance.
“These three conditions still need to improve further before bitcoin can make more progress,” the analyst concluded.
